{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dea60c00-11ff-484e-8a40-76ddb8088298", "symbol": "GMM", "name": "Grammer AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.333, "architecture_energy": 70.801, "architecture_maturity": 54.383, "architecture_confidence": 65.236, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 85.1, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 51.38, "rotation_down": 8.53, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 9.961818, 9.298333, 8.813441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.6, "trend_reference": 8.156667, "distance_from_trend": 0.29955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.241987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.767345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.462069, "excess_performance": 0.287822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.29955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164406, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.329398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.187673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.462069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052975, "annualized_volatility": 0.328911, "from_high_reference": -0.109244, "from_low_reference": 0.927273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.156667, "fair_value_reference": 8.241987, "structural_low": 6.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.04749, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.025706, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.147059, "worst_return": -0.144737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008798, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.277108, "worst_return": -0.123377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180723, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.057894, "positive_rate": 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"trend": 7.541667, "fair_value": 8.349038, "relative_strength": 12.967323, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.950185, "energy": 96.959079, "activity_lines": [ 9.14, 8.814545, 8.468095, 8.103656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.25, "trend": 7.698333, "fair_value": 8.326603, "relative_strength": 25.950042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.660695, "energy": 99.152309, "activity_lines": [ 9.723333, 9.195455, 8.717857, 8.307419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.25, "trend": 7.848333, "fair_value": 8.292628, "relative_strength": 19.307831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.450206, "energy": 92.483533, "activity_lines": [ 10.026667, 9.459091, 8.911667, 8.475269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.25, "trend": 8.01, "fair_value": 8.265705, "relative_strength": 21.332839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.767792, "energy": 88.641635, "activity_lines": [ 10.28, 9.720909, 9.10881, 8.646344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.25, "trend": 8.156667, "fair_value": 8.241987, "relative_strength": 18.767345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.332673, "energy": 70.801277, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 9.961818, 9.298333, 8.813441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }