{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dea8d453-e30f-4422-bc0b-c208fbdd1832", "symbol": "VIVT3", "name": "Telef\u00f4nica Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.157, "architecture_energy": 59.368, "architecture_maturity": 18.256, "architecture_confidence": 91.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.85, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 9.93, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 58.02, "downward_expansion": 78.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.046414, 33.661506, 34.307606, 35.301065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.58, "trend_reference": 36.112485, "distance_from_trend": -0.153201, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.502536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.682057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174412, "excess_performance": -0.117363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30987300, "relative_activity": 1.655296, "balance": 0.314237, "dry_up": 1.497847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060911, "annualized_volatility": 0.275711, "from_high_reference": -0.262993, "from_low_reference": 0.023747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.112485, "fair_value_reference": 26.502536, "structural_low": 30.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005268, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.030313, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074107, "worst_return": -0.052915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036488, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.101355, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.215247, "worst_return": -0.074206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117127, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.068352, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.161922, "worst_return": -0.06483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.225434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.293217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415488, "worst_return": 0.003594, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.238714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.775019, "volume": 19904000, "typical_volume": 21864390.0, "trend": 16.840428, "fair_value": 16.80215, "relative_strength": 4.258491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.104024, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.010266, "energy": 18.239071, "activity_lines": [ 34.554818, 34.097921, 35.362531, 35.957142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.366093, "volume": 21199600, "typical_volume": 18399445.0, "trend": 35.97211, "fair_value": 26.211192, "relative_strength": -1.7987, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.108173, "energy": 27.048386, "activity_lines": [ 34.969143, 34.323871, 35.240701, 35.927117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.316311, "volume": 23398800, "typical_volume": 18226740.0, "trend": 36.10475, "fair_value": 26.324988, "relative_strength": -2.013936, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.935198, "energy": 25.857962, "activity_lines": [ 35.239843, 34.56502, 35.141983, 35.884807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.63, "volume": 36573700, "typical_volume": 18564645.0, "trend": 36.153258, "fair_value": 26.420132, "relative_strength": -11.148244, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.389266, "energy": 26.197298, "activity_lines": [ 34.420209, 34.293503, 34.807745, 35.66063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.58, "volume": 30987300, "typical_volume": 18720100.0, "trend": 36.112485, "fair_value": 26.502536, "relative_strength": -13.682057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.156865, "energy": 59.367537, "activity_lines": [ 33.046414, 33.661506, 34.307606, 35.301065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }