{ "ticker": { "uuid": "deac04eb-ae22-471e-8025-113ae424a869", "symbol": "WREN", "name": "WisdomTree Renewable Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.903, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.458, "architecture_energy": 70.283, "architecture_maturity": 12.595, "architecture_confidence": 66.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.97, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 24.61, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 74.38, "downward_expansion": 66.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 2089.683333, 2182.481818, 2320.69881, 2329.589785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2130.5, "trend_reference": 2321.925, "distance_from_trend": -0.082442, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1684.261666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.232122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040747, "excess_performance": -0.091983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.397224, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14806, "relative_activity": 0.411413, "balance": 1.397224, "dry_up": 0.733255, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068946, "annualized_volatility": 0.259492, "from_high_reference": -0.236927, "from_low_reference": 0.478487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2321.925, "fair_value_reference": 1684.261666, "structural_low": 1701.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.292229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019012, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1774.900024, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1775.599976, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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"fair_value": 1682.741153, "relative_strength": -13.913082, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.36831, "energy": 73.428913, "activity_lines": [ 2095.3, 2219.231818, 2343.045238, 2341.959677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2130.5, "volume": 14806, "typical_volume": 35988.15, "trend": 2321.925, "fair_value": 1684.261666, "relative_strength": -9.232122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.457756, "energy": 70.28268, "activity_lines": [ 2089.683333, 2182.481818, 2320.69881, 2329.589785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }