{ "ticker": { "uuid": "deb13a4b-bb14-4b32-92d4-28b59280d919", "symbol": "600969", "name": "Hunan Chendian International Developmentco.,ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.792, "architecture_energy": 40.616, "architecture_maturity": 48.258, "architecture_confidence": 75.286, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.7, "rotation_up": 24.01, "upward_expansion": 10.4, "deceleration": 59.66, "rotation_down": 46.35, "downward_expansion": 72.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.055333, 8.083719, 8.821076, 9.229467 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.29, "trend_reference": 9.794853, "distance_from_trend": -0.153637, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.253241, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.842838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298052, "excess_performance": -0.254849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24728, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298052, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.843074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38148005, "relative_activity": 0.74724, "balance": 0.843074, "dry_up": 1.188113, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130964, "annualized_volatility": 0.654706, "from_high_reference": -0.341017, "from_low_reference": 0.201449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.794853, "fair_value_reference": 7.253241, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005354, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.006125, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.186275, "worst_return": -0.165316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019851, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039028, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.443137, "worst_return": -0.221719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066869, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.077444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298039, "worst_return": -0.131061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 50572872.65, "trend": 9.980853, "fair_value": 7.24042, "relative_strength": -5.994587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.237588, "energy": 77.311624, "activity_lines": [ 7.874, 8.553156, 9.230918, 9.590234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.71, "volume": 100305008, "typical_volume": 52238800.5, "trend": 9.91152, "fair_value": 7.241703, "relative_strength": -11.472803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.62103, "energy": 68.594309, "activity_lines": [ 7.794, 8.290767, 9.048558, 9.443727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.16, "volume": 47458759, "typical_volume": 51391800.85, "trend": 9.85952, "fair_value": 7.245741, "relative_strength": -6.752282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.492384, "energy": 47.379497, "activity_lines": [ 7.920667, 8.157007, 8.922531, 9.330726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.29, "volume": 38148005, "typical_volume": 51051896.75, "trend": 9.794853, "fair_value": 7.253241, "relative_strength": -7.842838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.792222, "energy": 40.616338, "activity_lines": [ 8.055333, 8.083719, 8.821076, 9.229467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }