{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dec0fe6f-f1c7-494e-bf17-a5eec8f8f5f0", "symbol": "VETH", "name": "Vanguard Ethically Conscious Australian Shares ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.246, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.346, "architecture_energy": 29.627, "architecture_maturity": 10.714, "architecture_confidence": 65.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.44, "rotation_up": 57.18, "upward_expansion": 37.13, "deceleration": 29.89, "rotation_down": 19.12, "downward_expansion": 23.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.640668, 68.142225, 67.744631, 67.94137 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.800003, "trend_reference": 68.476793, "distance_from_trend": 0.033927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.805235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.099385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027739, "excess_performance": -0.035966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139488, "relative_activity": 1.853598, "balance": 0.716006, "dry_up": 1.483774, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023582, "annualized_volatility": 0.158493, "from_high_reference": -0.042115, "from_low_reference": 0.090971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.476793, "fair_value_reference": 62.805235, "structural_low": 64.896349, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009577, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.007181, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.029884, "worst_return": -0.081355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009813, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004475, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.035716, "worst_return": -0.047976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010327, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.03443, "worst_return": -0.028756, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017085, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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-3.039177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.74676, "energy": 16.724855, "activity_lines": [ 67.698005, 67.325092, 67.446814, 67.931075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.800003, "volume": 105873, "typical_volume": 73519.35, "trend": 68.51189, "fair_value": 62.57274, "relative_strength": -3.600048, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.608039, "energy": 17.157687, "activity_lines": [ 67.392476, 67.294727, 67.366706, 67.812603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.150002, "volume": 137858, "typical_volume": 76388.9, "trend": 68.44223, "fair_value": 62.6812, "relative_strength": -3.815528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.831514, "energy": 6.252623, "activity_lines": [ 67.598001, 67.496981, 67.428948, 67.789256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.800003, "volume": 139488, "typical_volume": 75252.55, "trend": 68.476793, "fair_value": 62.805235, "relative_strength": -3.099385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.346017, "energy": 29.62732, "activity_lines": [ 68.640668, 68.142225, 67.744631, 67.94137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }