{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dec2386f-0325-41cd-8baf-0472ac8cefe2", "symbol": "SBM", "name": "St Barbara Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.685, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.752, "architecture_energy": 40.907, "architecture_maturity": 36.221, "architecture_confidence": 82.995, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.39, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 8.22, "deceleration": 55.85, "rotation_down": 49.38, "downward_expansion": 79.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.490333, 0.490727, 0.53181, 0.568376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.585, "trend_reference": 0.613667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.356058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.642992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.178043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07874, "excess_performance": -0.142446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.642992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382437, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47308060, "relative_activity": 1.553841, "balance": 1.382437, "dry_up": 1.227171, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123603, "annualized_volatility": 0.783471, "from_high_reference": -0.344538, "from_low_reference": 0.828125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.613667, "fair_value_reference": 0.356058, "structural_low": 0.405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.005313, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.015187, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.370132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.038194, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036878, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.62069, "worst_return": -0.395939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.268996, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.211769, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.382353, "worst_return": -0.31579, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.556857, 0.592441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 36439697, "typical_volume": 33347049.45, "trend": 0.617333, "fair_value": 0.352436, "relative_strength": -21.189021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.465412, "energy": 82.195001, "activity_lines": [ 0.449, 0.486182, 0.541976, 0.580645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.455, "volume": 32565048, "typical_volume": 33030284.25, "trend": 0.612833, "fair_value": 0.353846, "relative_strength": -20.853211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.999349, "energy": 78.364144, "activity_lines": [ 0.447333, 0.475727, 0.530167, 0.570172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.585, "volume": 47308060, "typical_volume": 30445874.15, "trend": 0.613667, "fair_value": 0.356058, "relative_strength": -2.178043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.751525, "energy": 40.90678, "activity_lines": [ 0.490333, 0.490727, 0.53181, 0.568376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }