{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dec5a534-97de-422d-9d95-431a71dcee93", "symbol": "BBLS", "name": "Bubbles Intergroup Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.662, "architecture_energy": 64.879, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.002, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.6, "rotation_up": 26.5, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.65, "rotation_down": 62.66, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.131733, 0.136873, 0.151086, 0.170006 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.131, "trend_reference": 0.199467, "distance_from_trend": -0.343249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.312115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.732863, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.523636, "excess_performance": -0.552537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.343249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580283, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051297, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.523636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2255797, "relative_activity": 2.534077, "balance": 0.831588, "dry_up": 2.510819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128597, "annualized_volatility": 0.453662, "from_high_reference": -0.625714, "from_low_reference": 0.110169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.199467, "fair_value_reference": 0.312115, "structural_low": 0.118, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.355556, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": -0.084381, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.27931, "worst_return": -0.384194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.189602, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.242414, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.301038, "worst_return": -0.522542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.331597, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.371917, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.041916, "worst_return": -0.658431, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 2213986, "typical_volume": 776530.2, "trend": 0.212667, "fair_value": 0.314872, "relative_strength": -53.309981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.725889, "energy": 68.152827, "activity_lines": [ 0.135067, 0.144364, 0.159167, 0.180105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.131, "volume": 200000, "typical_volume": 786530.2, "trend": 0.205867, "fair_value": 0.313385, "relative_strength": -51.535853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.010306, "energy": 67.465355, "activity_lines": [ 0.132667, 0.140291, 0.154833, 0.174837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.131, "volume": 2255797, "typical_volume": 890184.9, "trend": 0.199467, "fair_value": 0.312115, "relative_strength": -50.732863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.661829, "energy": 64.879155, "activity_lines": [ 0.131733, 0.136873, 0.151086, 0.170006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }