{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dec85caa-148a-40f4-93bc-c8af2e8cd312", "symbol": "EVEN3", "name": "Even Construtora e Incorporadora S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.708, "architecture_energy": 90.309, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.539, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.14, "rotation_up": 10.25, "upward_expansion": 21.36, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 78.46, "downward_expansion": 94.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.835333, 5.135636, 5.427498, 5.835394 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.56, "trend_reference": 6.407045, "distance_from_trend": -0.288283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.063408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.247948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.628775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.414634, "excess_performance": -0.357586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.247948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568591, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3524800, "relative_activity": 1.004437, "balance": 0.568591, "dry_up": 1.003603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094116, "annualized_volatility": 0.360216, "from_high_reference": -0.479452, "from_low_reference": 0.020134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.407045, "fair_value_reference": 6.063408, "structural_low": 4.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.001606, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.347548, "worst_return": -0.23399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03272, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.026395, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.205405, "worst_return": -0.253561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105522, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.082941, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.772124, "worst_return": -0.2251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -31.983995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.344753, "energy": 56.423497, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.524386, 5.781613, 6.190112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9, "volume": 3101800, "typical_volume": 3492515.0, "trend": 6.594711, "fair_value": 6.07912, "relative_strength": -32.738779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.696565, "energy": 62.407066, "activity_lines": [ 5.252, 5.409397, 5.66494, 6.074776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.83, "volume": 3323800, "typical_volume": 3510355.0, "trend": 6.505711, "fair_value": 6.071331, "relative_strength": -34.546222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.73064, "energy": 78.28321, "activity_lines": [ 5.057333, 5.289622, 5.553933, 5.960923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.56, "volume": 3524800, "typical_volume": 3509230.0, "trend": 6.407045, "fair_value": 6.063408, "relative_strength": -35.628775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.707727, "energy": 90.308528, "activity_lines": [ 4.835333, 5.135636, 5.427498, 5.835394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }