{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ded39028-2873-4d6c-bf74-e2d8d82ce78c",
    "symbol": "WCOE",
    "name": "WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 57.664,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.921,
    "architecture_energy": 34.661,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.767,
    "architecture_confidence": 46.471,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.96,
        "rotation_up": 63.65,
        "upward_expansion": 67.92,
        "deceleration": 64.95,
        "rotation_down": 9.33,
        "downward_expansion": 11.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.107734,
        16.819709,
        17.015162,
        16.926426
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 17.120001,
    "trend_reference": 16.552267,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.034299,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.188221,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298128,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.412521,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.16526,
    "excess_performance": -0.005632,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034299,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072033,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.298128,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.096932,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024125,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.145824,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.16526,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.433358,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8782,
      "relative_activity": 0.646677,
      "balance": 0.433358,
      "dry_up": 1.380723,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031407,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.187569,
      "from_high_reference": -0.098852,
      "from_low_reference": 0.379088
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.552267,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.188221,
      "structural_low": 14.53,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.011853,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002963,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.053661,
        "worst_return": -0.037304,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.027587,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004443,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.282167,
        "worst_return": -0.064577,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.023864,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034209,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.122935,
        "worst_return": -0.072396,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.065274,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.112516,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.220546,
        "worst_return": -0.114773,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.001673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015499,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010042,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.002201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "return": -0.03321,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 68.967789,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 17.834,
        "volume": 49213,
        "typical_volume": 21772.65,
        "trend": 14.974947,
        "fair_value": 12.783682,
        "relative_strength": 12.169886,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 12.822695,
        "relative_strength": 13.772023,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 65.811118,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 21731.1,
        "trend": 15.294267,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 60.99952,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 17.530001,
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        "trend": 15.440067,
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        "relative_strength": 7.629424,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 15.583267,
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        "relative_strength": 7.095414,
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        "energy": 46.542228,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 21481.6,
        "trend": 15.7032,
        "fair_value": 12.963823,
        "relative_strength": 0.759917,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 30.492345,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 12.992003,
        "relative_strength": -4.534515,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 22.153201,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 17229.25,
        "trend": 15.899,
        "fair_value": 13.017208,
        "relative_strength": -4.95949,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -12.963719,
        "energy": 26.013195,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.551733,
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          16.672013
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 15.852,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 16765.15,
        "trend": 15.977267,
        "fair_value": 13.041695,
        "relative_strength": -7.738621,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -15.85616,
        "energy": 35.63554,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.222533,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 16.388,
        "volume": 7738,
        "typical_volume": 16882.25,
        "trend": 16.079267,
        "fair_value": 13.067797,
        "relative_strength": -4.214502,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.190461,
        "energy": 32.494034,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.183867,
          16.6412,
          16.982029,
          16.69548
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 16.976,
        "volume": 12985,
        "typical_volume": 17134.8,
        "trend": 16.199933,
        "fair_value": 13.096721,
        "relative_strength": 0.541919,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.803681,
        "energy": 23.749671,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.4108,
          16.631236,
          16.9816,
          16.753333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.492001,
        "volume": 7903,
        "typical_volume": 16480.4,
        "trend": 16.3298,
        "fair_value": 13.128118,
        "relative_strength": 3.585736,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.277075,
        "energy": 17.183904,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.806667,
          16.730691,
          17.02221,
          16.836693
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.049999,
        "volume": 45332,
        "typical_volume": 13643.9,
        "trend": 16.449333,
        "fair_value": 13.157772,
        "relative_strength": 0.166642,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.383499,
        "energy": 25.748526,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.984933,
          16.760727,
          17.015562,
          16.883157
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 17.120001,
        "volume": 8782,
        "typical_volume": 13580.2,
        "trend": 16.552267,
        "fair_value": 13.188221,
        "relative_strength": -2.412521,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.920626,
        "energy": 34.661015,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.107734,
          16.819709,
          17.015162,
          16.926426
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}