{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ded86700-9aaf-4d30-ab89-b30dce4d0122", "symbol": "BNBR3", "name": "Banco do Nordeste do Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.985, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.008, "architecture_energy": 23.466, "architecture_maturity": 33.353, "architecture_confidence": 61.785, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.0, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 20.2, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 17.52, "downward_expansion": 51.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.553333, 110.550181, 111.056428, 112.78246 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 112.5, "trend_reference": 114.435995, "distance_from_trend": -0.016918, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.104812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.550966, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044014, "excess_performance": 0.013034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00551, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.855615, "balance": 0.39726, "dry_up": 0.828877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037703, "annualized_volatility": 0.196741, "from_high_reference": -0.102962, "from_low_reference": 0.25436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.435995, "fair_value_reference": 97.104812, "structural_low": 105.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003817, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.01078, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.072962, "worst_return": -0.095962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050602, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.007878, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.136078, "worst_return": -0.077788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096015, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175278, "worst_return": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.259542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020329, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 75.479004, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 235.0, "trend": 67.383458, "fair_value": 55.776082, "relative_strength": 12.947569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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120.593168, 119.793583, 117.596776, 114.274549 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 119.75, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 1405.0, "trend": 110.199847, "fair_value": 93.224228, "relative_strength": -4.619365, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.67124, "energy": 47.018185, "activity_lines": [ 120.269999, 119.889449, 118.078504, 114.939191 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 120.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1425.0, "trend": 110.881027, "fair_value": 93.566067, "relative_strength": -2.513914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.936035, "energy": 40.039422, "activity_lines": [ 119.973333, 120.015271, 118.515216, 115.571459 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 120.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 1410.0, "trend": 111.705271, "fair_value": 93.907906, "relative_strength": -0.636009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.172239, "energy": 36.793753, "activity_lines": [ 119.876666, 120.103472, 118.881913, 116.159779 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 111.879997, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 1545.0, "trend": 112.292358, "fair_value": 94.18963, "relative_strength": -3.715795, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.033609, "energy": 11.993137, "activity_lines": [ 117.173332, 118.681205, 118.409727, 116.171052 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 111.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1560.0, "trend": 112.770203, "fair_value": 94.481088, "relative_strength": -3.753313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -20.41692, "energy": 31.233695, "activity_lines": [ 114.817999, 117.169409, 117.826847, 116.087674 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 107.0, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 1305.0, "trend": 113.031582, "fair_value": 94.746905, "relative_strength": -5.723367, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.803272, "energy": 63.53896, "activity_lines": [ 111.642666, 115.056181, 116.840875, 115.715403 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 108.220001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1215.0, "trend": 113.320095, "fair_value": 94.999791, "relative_strength": -1.831287, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.381414, "energy": 73.971475, "activity_lines": [ 109.724, 113.381091, 115.996447, 115.404978 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 105.25, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1135.0, "trend": 113.388133, "fair_value": 95.243262, "relative_strength": -5.599258, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.411381, "energy": 81.198801, "activity_lines": [ 107.600667, 111.434727, 114.887786, 114.884327 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 105.400002, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1040.0, "trend": 113.461171, "fair_value": 95.478071, "relative_strength": -4.053175, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.436404, "energy": 82.955099, "activity_lines": [ 106.510668, 109.811091, 113.830781, 114.368964 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 105.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1010.0, "trend": 113.589908, "fair_value": 95.699184, "relative_strength": -6.603124, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.791788, "energy": 81.314654, "activity_lines": [ 105.839334, 108.47291, 112.825034, 113.846308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 106.019997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 960.0, "trend": 113.614014, "fair_value": 95.911088, "relative_strength": -6.459553, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.363548, "energy": 88.262415, "activity_lines": [ 105.764, 107.497273, 111.940808, 113.357926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 112.0, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 930.0, "trend": 113.837453, "fair_value": 96.161325, "relative_strength": -3.171026, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.92748, "energy": 59.295233, "activity_lines": [ 107.747333, 107.858545, 111.687428, 113.253796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 890.0, "trend": 114.029637, "fair_value": 96.406186, "relative_strength": -0.842949, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.093672, "energy": 39.304095, "activity_lines": [ 109.478666, 108.365273, 111.46229, 113.135251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.599998, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 880.0, "trend": 114.108488, "fair_value": 96.6185, "relative_strength": -3.963995, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.821046, "energy": 30.304234, "activity_lines": [ 109.626666, 108.399272, 110.942506, 112.784952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 116.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 945.0, "trend": 114.430139, "fair_value": 96.87825, "relative_strength": 0.468081, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.223459, "energy": 24.371017, "activity_lines": [ 112.027999, 109.838363, 111.161559, 112.906985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.5, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 935.0, "trend": 114.435995, "fair_value": 97.104812, "relative_strength": 0.550966, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.007825, "energy": 23.466011, "activity_lines": [ 112.553333, 110.550181, 111.056428, 112.78246 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }