{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dedb85ef-117e-4546-8f25-62fa9e450a5f", "symbol": "SDSD", "name": "S.D. Standard ETC Plc", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.726, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.838, "architecture_energy": 13.734, "architecture_maturity": 29.408, "architecture_confidence": 70.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.49, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 32.41, "rotation_down": 32.84, "downward_expansion": 59.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.835, 1.834545, 1.840643, 1.848419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.85, "trend_reference": 1.857833, "distance_from_trend": -0.004216, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.726906, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.176166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010695, "excess_performance": -0.135689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004216, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.660116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28475, "relative_activity": 0.37384, "balance": 7.660116, "dry_up": 0.963408, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029938, "annualized_volatility": 0.098109, "from_high_reference": -0.072682, "from_low_reference": 0.036415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.857833, "fair_value_reference": 1.726906, "structural_low": 1.785, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003559, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015539, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.123595, "worst_return": -0.066511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00949, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046489, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.175396, "worst_return": -0.057773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019958, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06202, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.156373, "worst_return": -0.026098, "sufficient": false 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"fair_value": 1.724029, "relative_strength": -8.936892, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.779697, "energy": 15.909203, "activity_lines": [ 1.838667, 1.837636, 1.84719, 1.854226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 10416, "typical_volume": 100516.35, "trend": 1.859667, "fair_value": 1.724937, "relative_strength": -13.478619, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.069806, "energy": 27.228614, "activity_lines": [ 1.826, 1.830182, 1.841786, 1.850237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.84, "volume": 29787, "typical_volume": 76098.45, "trend": 1.8585, "fair_value": 1.725849, "relative_strength": -11.654499, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.20172, "energy": 24.61474, "activity_lines": [ 1.829, 1.831182, 1.840619, 1.848968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 28475, "typical_volume": 76168.9, "trend": 1.857833, "fair_value": 1.726906, "relative_strength": -11.176166, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.837545, "energy": 13.733948, "activity_lines": [ 1.835, 1.834545, 1.840643, 1.848419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }