{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dedcb216-003e-4892-aa9d-b0cd411e5104", "symbol": "IJH", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CORE S&P MID-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.683, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.138, "architecture_energy": 48.804, "architecture_maturity": 54.43, "architecture_confidence": 65.061, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.52, "rotation_up": 49.32, "upward_expansion": 77.55, "deceleration": 66.37, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 6.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.272667, 76.044166, 75.044656, 73.711864 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 77.79, "trend_reference": 72.208987, "distance_from_trend": 0.07729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.128791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272559, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.399807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089696, "excess_performance": -0.035928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003998, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30795630, "relative_activity": 0.775756, "balance": 0.984184, "dry_up": 0.776512, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027398, "annualized_volatility": 0.136943, "from_high_reference": -0.002564, "from_low_reference": 0.267618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.208987, "fair_value_reference": 61.128791, "structural_low": 65.207785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.004068, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.010119, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.079003, "worst_return": -0.092094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014657, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.014187, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.105709, "worst_return": -0.094446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072648, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.04022, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.156579, "worst_return": -0.140643, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.233415, "energy": 44.597407, "activity_lines": [ 75.761333, 75.61131, 74.344548, 73.096891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.27, "volume": 31707758, "typical_volume": 41876563.55, "trend": 71.908633, "fair_value": 60.957009, "relative_strength": 0.609827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.088196, "energy": 34.913569, "activity_lines": [ 75.565333, 75.616396, 74.595293, 73.33242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.79, "volume": 30795630, "typical_volume": 39697591.4, "trend": 72.208987, "fair_value": 61.128791, "relative_strength": 0.399807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.137912, "energy": 48.803694, "activity_lines": [ 76.272667, 76.044166, 75.044656, 73.711864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }