{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dee031c6-10fb-49ad-94e3-ae2bcb3ff945", "symbol": "MATD3", "name": "Hospital Mater Dei S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.2, "architecture_energy": 37.109, "architecture_maturity": 55.685, "architecture_confidence": 57.386, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.88, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 16.8, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 41.76, "downward_expansion": 66.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.822, 4.816909, 4.980905, 5.152065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.79, "trend_reference": 5.346, "distance_from_trend": -0.104003, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.148252, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.65313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164049, "excess_performance": -0.107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104003, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069587, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 958000, "relative_activity": 1.397704, "balance": 0.873672, "dry_up": 1.335405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060543, "annualized_volatility": 0.205484, "from_high_reference": -0.223663, "from_low_reference": 0.198095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.346, "fair_value_reference": 5.148252, "structural_low": 4.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.015082, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.025311, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.324022, "worst_return": -0.186826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071509, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.068975, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.409325, "worst_return": -0.192771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.174447, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.11971, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.38473, "worst_return": -0.299484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07037, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-74.393849, "energy": 83.124997, "activity_lines": [ 4.796667, 4.926182, 5.208667, 5.333806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.84, "volume": 1803300, "typical_volume": 630300.0, "trend": 5.409667, "fair_value": 5.27034, "relative_strength": -10.470583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.756074, "energy": 71.248657, "activity_lines": [ 4.805333, 4.881091, 5.154667, 5.296946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8, "volume": 910700, "typical_volume": 642150.0, "trend": 5.391667, "fair_value": 5.238469, "relative_strength": -8.87793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.887345, "energy": 61.775699, "activity_lines": [ 4.800667, 4.845091, 5.101667, 5.257613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 1232200, "typical_volume": 664610.0, "trend": 5.372333, "fair_value": 5.207826, "relative_strength": -7.667257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.645231, "energy": 48.493584, "activity_lines": [ 4.82, 4.835091, 5.059905, 5.223312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.84, "volume": 560300, "typical_volume": 660235.0, "trend": 5.362, "fair_value": 5.175308, "relative_strength": -9.877752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.733764, "energy": 41.502101, "activity_lines": [ 4.828, 4.828545, 5.021, 5.188968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.79, "volume": 958000, "typical_volume": 685410.0, "trend": 5.346, "fair_value": 5.148252, "relative_strength": -7.65313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.200422, "energy": 37.108869, "activity_lines": [ 4.822, 4.816909, 4.980905, 5.152065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }