{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dee0d8a0-2be8-4f49-9fce-9cf237870ed9", "symbol": "PLAB", "name": "Photronics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.567, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.593, "architecture_energy": 34.354, "architecture_maturity": 32.578, "architecture_confidence": 66.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.53, "rotation_up": 22.94, "upward_expansion": 16.0, "deceleration": 61.83, "rotation_down": 43.36, "downward_expansion": 66.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.866667, 30.613818, 34.85319, 36.527226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.65, "trend_reference": 37.591167, "distance_from_trend": -0.131445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.590224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.350576, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123255, "excess_performance": -0.310708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.856211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.688655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.556578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4348722, "relative_activity": 0.695938, "balance": 0.556578, "dry_up": 0.722806, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179768, "annualized_volatility": 0.80812, "from_high_reference": -0.416964, "from_low_reference": 0.648157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.591167, "fair_value_reference": 26.590224, "structural_low": 27.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.003791, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.01054, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.459786, "worst_return": -0.158972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04337, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.728552, "worst_return": -0.105239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099841, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.252159, "worst_return": -0.086751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000347, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076492, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.16, "volume": 2427045, "typical_volume": 2661511.2, "trend": 19.851333, "fair_value": 15.964103, "relative_strength": 3.343259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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26.500673, "relative_strength": -12.383975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.152123, "energy": 47.948295, "activity_lines": [ 29.677333, 30.676182, 36.240619, 37.326688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.29, "volume": 4909327, "typical_volume": 6250634.2, "trend": 37.613833, "fair_value": 26.529519, "relative_strength": -13.246991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.816667, "energy": 44.52116, "activity_lines": [ 29.865333, 30.238, 35.426762, 36.847473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.65, "volume": 4348722, "typical_volume": 6248721.2, "trend": 37.591167, "fair_value": 26.590224, "relative_strength": -11.350576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.593444, "energy": 34.353864, "activity_lines": [ 30.866667, 30.613818, 34.85319, 36.527226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }