{ "ticker": { "uuid": "deeecf90-c170-4c5f-8431-ce72b27c5a28", "symbol": "UDIV-B", "name": "Manulife Smart U.S. Dividend ETF Unhedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.403, "architecture_energy": 60.028, "architecture_maturity": 64.735, "architecture_confidence": 74.575, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 49.33, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.786667, 18.810266, 18.462055, 17.971176 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.040001, "trend_reference": 17.361463, "distance_from_trend": 0.096682, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.209485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.658692, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.155558, "excess_performance": 0.035137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096682, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.138728, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.116618, "balance": 6.138728, "dry_up": 0.413994, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017021, "annualized_volatility": 0.11487, "from_high_reference": -0.007299, "from_low_reference": 0.312473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.361463, "fair_value_reference": 14.209485, "structural_low": 15.661003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033479, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 11100.0, "trend": 16.938869, "fair_value": 14.024931, "relative_strength": 5.335039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.605743, "energy": 88.191719, "activity_lines": [ 18.93581, 18.721539, 18.03041, 17.550037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.559999, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 10750.0, "trend": 17.043531, "fair_value": 14.070455, "relative_strength": 3.238527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.581612, "energy": 66.770973, "activity_lines": [ 18.813548, 18.741167, 18.139144, 17.654626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 9350.0, "trend": 17.15784, "fair_value": 14.116982, "relative_strength": 4.252733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.667598, "energy": 64.941856, "activity_lines": [ 18.787411, 18.783842, 18.260957, 17.767946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.530001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8770.0, "trend": 17.262096, "fair_value": 14.161599, "relative_strength": 3.18375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.175894, "energy": 55.968859, "activity_lines": [ 18.687333, 18.754647, 18.343435, 17.856473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.040001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 8575.0, "trend": 17.361463, "fair_value": 14.209485, "relative_strength": 2.658692, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.402997, "energy": 60.027576, "activity_lines": [ 18.786667, 18.810266, 18.462055, 17.971176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }