{ "ticker": { "uuid": "def2e5e2-bc8f-455f-b4f8-f4b9816d0204", "symbol": "HXEM", "name": "Global X Emerging Markets Equity Index Corporate Class ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.346, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.529, "architecture_energy": 24.405, "architecture_maturity": 65.478, "architecture_confidence": 83.928, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 54.51, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.322666, 58.38309, 58.102238, 56.669892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.970001, "trend_reference": 54.897166, "distance_from_trend": 0.055974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.146186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.408879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.768158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11976, "excess_performance": -0.000661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.408879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007682, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29500, "relative_activity": 0.921443, "balance": 0.978556, "dry_up": 1.502421, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050809, "annualized_volatility": 0.272621, "from_high_reference": -0.108154, "from_low_reference": 0.365928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.897166, "fair_value_reference": 41.146186, "structural_low": 47.919998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011081, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.036326, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.141951, "worst_return": -0.02043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039305, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.018721, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.304077, "worst_return": -0.012438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059112, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284425, "worst_return": 0.010883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008676, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.218952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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56.169998, "volume": 84500, "typical_volume": 37000.0, "trend": 54.0455, "fair_value": 40.675609, "relative_strength": 0.976337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.8089, "energy": 35.964059, "activity_lines": [ 59.221999, 59.41, 57.742214, 56.122656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.549999, "volume": 45200, "typical_volume": 34165.0, "trend": 54.363833, "fair_value": 40.823814, "relative_strength": 1.291531, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.087168, "energy": 22.090228, "activity_lines": [ 58.031999, 58.952545, 57.838761, 56.284236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.009998, "volume": 33200, "typical_volume": 33145.0, "trend": 54.6385, "fair_value": 40.97984, "relative_strength": 2.429335, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.75043, "energy": 24.3777, "activity_lines": [ 57.405332, 58.577454, 57.943595, 56.454957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.970001, "volume": 29500, "typical_volume": 32015.0, "trend": 54.897166, "fair_value": 41.146186, "relative_strength": 0.768158, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.52889, "energy": 24.405498, "activity_lines": [ 57.322666, 58.38309, 58.102238, 56.669892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }