{ "ticker": { "uuid": "def6c70c-5b46-49e2-af4c-bb446eebdca5", "symbol": "VVO", "name": "Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility ETF CAD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.495, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.972, "architecture_energy": 67.206, "architecture_maturity": 34.747, "architecture_confidence": 71.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 68.46, "upward_expansion": 86.7, "deceleration": 51.33, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 11.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.702666, 42.514181, 42.153905, 41.823505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.169998, "trend_reference": 41.432666, "distance_from_trend": 0.041931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.608661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.033207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048324, "excess_performance": -0.072097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048324, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4600, "relative_activity": 0.770519, "balance": 1.383495, "dry_up": 1.113903, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011814, "annualized_volatility": 0.086017, "from_high_reference": -0.009283, "from_low_reference": 0.129565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.432666, "fair_value_reference": 36.608661, "structural_low": 39.450001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.006471, "positive_rate": 0.651163, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.008818, "regime_survival": 0.790698, "best_return": 0.043285, "worst_return": -0.064011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008173, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018187, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.078344, "worst_return": -0.050972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.040053, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.017351, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.094775, "worst_return": -0.063855, "sufficient": true }, { 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41.607381, 41.352419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.360001, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 6890.0, "trend": 41.016212, "fair_value": 36.300716, "relative_strength": -5.113906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.391792, "energy": 65.519196, "activity_lines": [ 42.304, 42.132546, 41.703667, 41.446106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.360001, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 6970.0, "trend": 41.115755, "fair_value": 36.375223, "relative_strength": -4.720281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.787565, "energy": 69.295596, "activity_lines": [ 42.344667, 42.20491, 41.796, 41.532802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.349998, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 6615.0, "trend": 41.213333, "fair_value": 36.449186, "relative_strength": -4.739954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.510588, "energy": 67.86063, "activity_lines": [ 42.38, 42.254364, 41.886524, 41.61243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.639999, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 6830.0, "trend": 41.325, "fair_value": 36.528124, "relative_strength": -3.409197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.641881, "energy": 55.734178, "activity_lines": [ 42.469333, 42.340909, 41.999429, 41.704473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.169998, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 5970.0, "trend": 41.432666, "fair_value": 36.608661, "relative_strength": -5.033207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.971785, "energy": 67.206224, "activity_lines": [ 42.702666, 42.514181, 42.153905, 41.823505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }