{ "ticker": { "uuid": "def84382-d2b2-4a75-9d9f-ccc571443492", "symbol": "ALTAI", "name": "LightOn SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.421, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.781, "architecture_energy": 40.837, "architecture_maturity": 49.421, "architecture_confidence": 61.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.47, "rotation_up": 9.05, "upward_expansion": 11.54, "deceleration": 63.85, "rotation_down": 67.9, "downward_expansion": 68.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.379333, 4.986455, 4.8669, 4.941062 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 5.1154, "distance_from_trend": -0.237596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.325596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.622298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.766951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.344538, "excess_performance": -0.397849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.622298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.38767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158433, "relative_activity": 1.10934, "balance": 0.511622, "dry_up": 2.093258, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.264892, "annualized_volatility": 1.075998, "from_high_reference": -0.627151, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.1154, "fair_value_reference": 10.325596, "structural_low": 3.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005102, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 18.0, "volume": 674425, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.738207, "energy": 39.842592, "activity_lines": [ 5.781667, 5.437364, 5.059429, 5.117333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.07, "volume": 193093, "typical_volume": 113104.4, "trend": 5.2204, "fair_value": 10.473081, "relative_strength": -20.515396, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.335691, "energy": 8.746566, "activity_lines": [ 5.442, 5.444455, 5.065443, 5.107673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 506645, "typical_volume": 135989.3, "trend": 5.182067, "fair_value": 10.398614, "relative_strength": -38.307825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.162852, "energy": 25.295514, "activity_lines": [ 4.811, 5.219182, 4.96279, 5.023776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 158433, "typical_volume": 142817.3, "trend": 5.1154, "fair_value": 10.325596, "relative_strength": -38.766951, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.780863, "energy": 40.837086, "activity_lines": [ 4.379333, 4.986455, 4.8669, 4.941062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }