{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "def8ed91-fc89-4166-9fa8-879b20e2ed26",
    "symbol": "CU2",
    "name": "Amundi PEA MSCI USA ESG Selection UCITS ETF - EUR",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.37,
    "architecture_energy": 58.242,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.348,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.121,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.46,
        "rotation_up": 47.93,
        "upward_expansion": 72.44,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 27.89,
        "downward_expansion": 22.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        815.91934,
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        802.057713,
        779.65499
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 833.140015,
    "trend_reference": 754.418005,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.104348,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 658.557425,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265099,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.818202,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.177661,
    "excess_performance": 0.124349,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104348,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048909,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.265099,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048785,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068182,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034927,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.177661,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.551261,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 413,
      "relative_activity": 0.434394,
      "balance": 3.551261,
      "dry_up": 1.195898,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020145,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.127691,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003719,
      "from_low_reference": 0.26905
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 754.418005,
      "fair_value_reference": 658.557425,
      "structural_low": 663.379272,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.000454,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004902,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.071499,
        "worst_return": -0.086333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.062338,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067229,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.139319,
        "worst_return": -0.208552,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.095866,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051555,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.16556,
        "worst_return": -0.104751,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.003038,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.082277,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.264801,
        "worst_return": -0.023371,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.082023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003508,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.089235,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.116744,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029241,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009015,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.068146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031512,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.113602,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "close": 729.167175,
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        "typical_volume": 1225.6,
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        "fair_value": 628.71391,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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        "energy": 11.301699,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 1275.45,
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        "fair_value": 630.396282,
        "relative_strength": 5.896875,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 1326.95,
        "trend": 707.970229,
        "fair_value": 632.118359,
        "relative_strength": 6.813912,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 710.679824,
        "fair_value": 633.964629,
        "relative_strength": 10.310917,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "energy": 88.396742,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 635.801288,
        "relative_strength": 13.474903,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 94.293727,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1303.5,
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        "relative_strength": 12.664297,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1332.1,
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        "relative_strength": 12.725541,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 1296.9,
        "trend": 722.909306,
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        "relative_strength": 12.167553,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 726.4271,
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        "relative_strength": 10.380486,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 94,
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        "trend": 734.44789,
        "fair_value": 647.216142,
        "relative_strength": 10.661184,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 74.299763,
        "energy": 88.129523,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 62,
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        "trend": 738.053536,
        "fair_value": 649.203127,
        "relative_strength": 9.814692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 826.049988,
        "volume": 2827,
        "typical_volume": 1008.35,
        "trend": 741.927852,
        "fair_value": 651.198901,
        "relative_strength": 11.735044,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.875901,
        "energy": 83.970614,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1438,
        "typical_volume": 1030.15,
        "trend": 744.984519,
        "fair_value": 653.012687,
        "relative_strength": 8.813854,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.539237,
        "energy": 66.368786,
        "activity_lines": [
          818.058,
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          787.915528,
          766.804048
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 806.880005,
        "volume": 1849,
        "typical_volume": 996.6,
        "trend": 748.013853,
        "fair_value": 654.770499,
        "relative_strength": 8.121808,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.94953,
        "energy": 59.848706,
        "activity_lines": [
          813.842,
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          770.797306
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 803.25,
        "volume": 848,
        "typical_volume": 992.8,
        "trend": 751.082045,
        "fair_value": 656.553154,
        "relative_strength": 5.720767,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.219812,
        "energy": 51.728635,
        "activity_lines": [
          809.426001,
          812.58571,
          796.064263,
          774.360928
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 833.140015,
        "volume": 413,
        "typical_volume": 950.75,
        "trend": 754.418005,
        "fair_value": 658.557425,
        "relative_strength": 6.818202,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.369614,
        "energy": 58.241603,
        "activity_lines": [
          815.91934,
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          779.65499
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}