{ "ticker": { "uuid": "defb2a69-b73f-4aa7-81cb-05d9f3de4b60", "symbol": "600403", "name": "Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.499, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.428, "architecture_energy": 11.177, "architecture_maturity": 46.586, "architecture_confidence": 46.494, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.97, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 43.5, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 61.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.676, 5.634909, 5.731238, 5.881441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.46, "trend_reference": 6.186667, "distance_from_trend": 0.044181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.314615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.251733, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123474, "excess_performance": -0.08027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136404, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062517, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123474, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.214926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 457360449, "relative_activity": 2.289041, "balance": 1.214926, "dry_up": 2.509733, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163968, "annualized_volatility": 0.855169, "from_high_reference": -0.461667, "from_low_reference": 0.794444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.186667, "fair_value_reference": 4.314615, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.025501, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.012532, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.361702, "worst_return": -0.158621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01978, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.036367, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.336032, "worst_return": -0.228205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004739, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114381, "worst_return": -0.39, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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187084631.7, "trend": 6.204, "fair_value": 4.299936, "relative_strength": -5.150506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.244461, "energy": 49.490247, "activity_lines": [ 5.254, 5.513273, 5.663476, 5.864925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.46, "volume": 457360449, "typical_volume": 199804397.3, "trend": 6.186667, "fair_value": 4.314615, "relative_strength": 6.251733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.427635, "energy": 11.177435, "activity_lines": [ 5.676, 5.634909, 5.731238, 5.881441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }