{ "ticker": { "uuid": "defc9acf-357c-49f3-bb27-3b78ffa01c67", "symbol": "00657K", "name": "Cathay Nikkei 225 Currency-hedged ETF Fund", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.287, "architecture_energy": 29.692, "architecture_maturity": 66.862, "architecture_confidence": 72.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.12, "rotation_up": 20.28, "upward_expansion": 55.69, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 42.07, "downward_expansion": 21.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.571333, 24.148909, 24.03819, 23.332107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.01, "trend_reference": 22.370667, "distance_from_trend": 0.07328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.008205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.137435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.194527, "excess_performance": -0.184784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07328, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.194527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 1.351351, "balance": 0.72549, "dry_up": 1.351351, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042578, "annualized_volatility": 0.28629, "from_high_reference": -0.090875, "from_low_reference": 0.521546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.370667, "fair_value_reference": 16.008205, "structural_low": 18.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009879, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126407, "worst_return": -0.041975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.305015, "worst_return": -0.019884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130075, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.148751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38708, "worst_return": 0.011679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08285, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.201791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08285, "worst_return": 0.08285, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055841, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054131, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.232271, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026946, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.07, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 920.0, "trend": 11.440667, "fair_value": 11.424679, "relative_strength": -0.248605, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.610441, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.186527, "energy": 23.350899, "activity_lines": [ 11.974, 12.146545, 12.18681, 11.950366 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 12.15, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 930.0, "trend": 11.651, "fair_value": 11.489103, "relative_strength": 1.62726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.27967, "energy": 20.06029, "activity_lines": [ 11.999333, 12.121636, 12.198952, 11.985011 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 12.01, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 920.0, "trend": 11.688333, "fair_value": 11.504167, "relative_strength": 0.846099, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.730388, "energy": 18.155592, "activity_lines": [ 12.002667, 12.082909, 12.193143, 12.008172 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 12.4, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 920.0, "trend": 11.744667, "fair_value": 11.52109, "relative_strength": 1.948598, "stage": 2, 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24.709999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 850.0, "trend": 20.675333, "fair_value": 15.316474, "relative_strength": -15.757238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.819426, "energy": 90.261726, "activity_lines": [ 24.292666, 23.516, 22.320143, 21.596882 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 24.610001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 810.0, "trend": 20.864333, "fair_value": 15.396218, "relative_strength": -14.048275, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.995284, "energy": 87.915653, "activity_lines": [ 24.470667, 23.854909, 22.609524, 21.850731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 26.41, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 790.0, "trend": 21.108333, "fair_value": 15.486026, "relative_strength": -12.022531, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.380857, "energy": 95.26028, "activity_lines": [ 25.179333, 24.428909, 23.048762, 22.208516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 25.440001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 750.0, "trend": 21.348333, "fair_value": 15.56641, "relative_strength": -11.320021, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.4468, "energy": 84.720117, "activity_lines": [ 25.388667, 24.733637, 23.365191, 22.487978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.5, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 710.0, "trend": 21.570333, "fair_value": 15.647885, "relative_strength": -14.859407, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.254184, "energy": 78.47041, "activity_lines": [ 25.494667, 24.987091, 23.661905, 22.755828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.82, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 720.0, "trend": 21.766333, "fair_value": 15.726795, "relative_strength": -14.078895, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.575453, "energy": 66.636118, "activity_lines": [ 25.323334, 25.057091, 23.868333, 22.965484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.18, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 730.0, "trend": 21.904333, "fair_value": 15.796346, "relative_strength": -14.304001, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.997467, "energy": 46.198458, "activity_lines": [ 24.598, 24.777818, 23.903476, 23.056688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.379999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 740.0, "trend": 22.066667, "fair_value": 15.865769, "relative_strength": -15.141377, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.488327, "energy": 29.215124, "activity_lines": [ 24.034666, 24.542, 23.952809, 23.151892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 740.0, "trend": 22.2, "fair_value": 15.934551, "relative_strength": -14.842231, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.66113, "energy": 30.181735, "activity_lines": [ 23.563333, 24.253272, 23.957333, 23.215333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.01, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 740.0, "trend": 22.370667, "fair_value": 16.008205, "relative_strength": -13.137435, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.28717, "energy": 29.691807, "activity_lines": [ 23.571333, 24.148909, 24.03819, 23.332107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }