{ "ticker": { "uuid": "defe2433-8fa7-4ee0-8279-3411ec6a850d", "symbol": "ARCHIDPLY", "name": "Archidply Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 72.939, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.877, "architecture_energy": 42.623, "architecture_maturity": 32.759, "architecture_confidence": 56.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.71, "rotation_up": 52.88, "upward_expansion": 53.15, "deceleration": 28.79, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 18.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.136667, 82.648182, 81.554715, 80.578345 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 89.489998, "trend_reference": 80.659001, "distance_from_trend": 0.109486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.213462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.994206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011925, "excess_performance": 0.031785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029942, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029112, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.912427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 339163, "relative_activity": 3.883087, "balance": 2.912427, "dry_up": 1.312379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069668, "annualized_volatility": 0.390817, "from_high_reference": -0.208053, "from_low_reference": 0.4915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.659001, "fair_value_reference": 96.213462, "structural_low": 60.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008982, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.025971, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.522833, "worst_return": -0.169922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026946, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.084857, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.530418, "worst_return": -0.268892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.280103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.180127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.682341, "worst_return": -0.168543, 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"Developing", "return": -0.102126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064953, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"close": 81.139999, "volume": 24373, "typical_volume": 90314.35, "trend": 80.560334, "fair_value": 96.103269, "relative_strength": -6.141959, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.460769, "energy": 12.548515, "activity_lines": [ 81.358668, 81.039092, 80.542096, 80.002237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.489998, "volume": 339163, "typical_volume": 87343.65, "trend": 80.659001, "fair_value": 96.213462, "relative_strength": 2.994206, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.876615, "energy": 42.623366, "activity_lines": [ 84.136667, 82.648182, 81.554715, 80.578345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }