{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df03b87c-d68c-4ae4-8657-60fad6c2306b", "symbol": "FCEF", "name": "FIRST TRUST INCOME OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.406, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.749, "architecture_energy": 42.342, "architecture_maturity": 47.97, "architecture_confidence": 57.009, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.0, "rotation_up": 49.02, "upward_expansion": 76.08, "deceleration": 67.01, "rotation_down": 23.41, "downward_expansion": 5.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.880993, 23.800577, 23.656425, 23.433263 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.131, "trend_reference": 23.190195, "distance_from_trend": 0.040569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.737682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.54228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053861, "excess_performance": -0.133592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026017, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.432435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148751, "relative_activity": 1.753505, "balance": 1.432435, "dry_up": 1.31555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01992, "annualized_volatility": 0.095934, "from_high_reference": -0.0012, "from_low_reference": 0.144458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.190195, "fair_value_reference": 19.737682, "structural_low": 21.56931, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.006304, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.003598, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.044337, "worst_return": -0.074923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016447, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.029907, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.076188, "worst_return": -0.03973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060981, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034799, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.119422, "worst_return": 0.003106, "sufficient": 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-4.957316, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.741736, "energy": 44.270994, "activity_lines": [ 23.776233, 23.688048, 23.475463, 23.281609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.7, "volume": 69128, "typical_volume": 82133.25, "trend": 23.081579, "fair_value": 19.633474, "relative_strength": -3.37053, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.58636, "energy": 41.843062, "activity_lines": [ 23.767716, 23.700515, 23.525887, 23.324852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.765, "volume": 59859, "typical_volume": 81034.25, "trend": 23.134055, "fair_value": 19.684476, "relative_strength": -3.456728, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.177133, "energy": 37.421263, "activity_lines": [ 23.769169, 23.719033, 23.577248, 23.368944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.131, "volume": 148751, "typical_volume": 84830.65, "trend": 23.190195, "fair_value": 19.737682, "relative_strength": -6.54228, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.749144, "energy": 42.342304, "activity_lines": [ 23.880993, 23.800577, 23.656425, 23.433263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }