{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df06f1ab-8869-481e-b15d-eb6f9ddd8059", "symbol": "301058", "name": "COFCO Technology & Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.496, "architecture_energy": 41.578, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.848, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.89, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 40.89, "downward_expansion": 68.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.207333, 8.142545, 8.499008, 8.957804 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.5, "trend_reference": 9.648657, "distance_from_trend": -0.119048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.545919, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.078147, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288703, "excess_performance": -0.296103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42669017, "relative_activity": 1.931312, "balance": 0.498114, "dry_up": 1.195236, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063066, "annualized_volatility": 0.258414, "from_high_reference": -0.321086, "from_low_reference": 0.106771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.648657, "fair_value_reference": 10.545919, "structural_low": 7.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.022241, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019466, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.372315, "worst_return": -0.134752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092237, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.051775, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.324324, "worst_return": -0.198984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.166994, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.098998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131757, "worst_return": -0.268116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -67.247735, "energy": 66.079742, "activity_lines": [ 8.012667, 8.210757, 8.755147, 9.274296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.82, "volume": 22702510, "typical_volume": 24439792.15, "trend": 9.823657, "fair_value": 10.611008, "relative_strength": -26.173312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.21128, "energy": 65.664712, "activity_lines": [ 7.948667, 8.094967, 8.619815, 9.138727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 19499814, "typical_volume": 22081545.55, "trend": 9.730657, "fair_value": 10.578005, "relative_strength": -20.144356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.897934, "energy": 56.277041, "activity_lines": [ 8.054, 8.089439, 8.541435, 9.037201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.5, "volume": 42669017, "typical_volume": 22093276.85, "trend": 9.648657, "fair_value": 10.545919, "relative_strength": -21.078147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.496337, "energy": 41.577884, "activity_lines": [ 8.207333, 8.142545, 8.499008, 8.957804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }