{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df086e1d-0928-4598-a61b-42629aa8593b", "symbol": "5243", "name": "Eson Precision Ind. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.7, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.013, "architecture_energy": 39.675, "architecture_maturity": 15.182, "architecture_confidence": 67.64, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 20.83, "upward_expansion": 14.07, "deceleration": 50.51, "rotation_down": 56.12, "downward_expansion": 51.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.433334, 88.796364, 97.258571, 97.972903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 87.300003, "trend_reference": 95.91, "distance_from_trend": -0.089772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.755634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.209274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058182, "excess_performance": -0.28755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2506849, "relative_activity": 0.139028, "balance": 0.691547, "dry_up": 0.315078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141334, "annualized_volatility": 0.719282, "from_high_reference": -0.391638, "from_low_reference": 0.322727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.91, "fair_value_reference": 67.755634, "structural_low": 66.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001978, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001638, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.588785, "worst_return": -0.104167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059581, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319092, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119225, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.124141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292359, "worst_return": -0.136494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.800929, "energy": 59.849214, "activity_lines": [ 86.399999, 94.109091, 101.642381, 99.420645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.099998, "volume": 5720810, "typical_volume": 21424658.2, "trend": 95.433333, "fair_value": 67.44002, "relative_strength": -25.615154, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.804377, "energy": 54.503005, "activity_lines": [ 85.253332, 91.563636, 100.172857, 98.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 89.5, "volume": 5220432, "typical_volume": 20876052.8, "trend": 95.786667, "fair_value": 67.59115, "relative_strength": -25.771394, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.696084, "energy": 45.798812, "activity_lines": [ 85.933332, 90.170908, 98.855238, 98.52043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 87.300003, "volume": 2506849, "typical_volume": 18031214.35, "trend": 95.91, "fair_value": 67.755634, "relative_strength": -26.209274, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.013227, "energy": 39.675037, "activity_lines": [ 86.433334, 88.796364, 97.258571, 97.972903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }