{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df0a7f03-9fe9-44d5-be96-db0c4c34c564", "symbol": "KEAT", "name": "KEATING ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.338, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.473, "architecture_energy": 29.162, "architecture_maturity": 62.576, "architecture_confidence": 45.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 52.79, "upward_expansion": 31.17, "deceleration": 38.47, "rotation_down": 14.69, "downward_expansion": 51.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.100393, 32.584402, 32.70594, 32.967549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.8113, "trend_reference": 33.15827, "distance_from_trend": 0.019694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.990305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.404495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016868, "excess_performance": -0.170586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022365, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0134, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.736271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24433, "relative_activity": 1.239096, "balance": 1.736271, "dry_up": 0.518285, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017837, "annualized_volatility": 0.117961, "from_high_reference": -0.041237, "from_low_reference": 0.243566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.15827, "fair_value_reference": 27.990305, "structural_low": 31.1331, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025243, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-29", "close": 24.340267, "volume": 3104, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 24.282254, "volume": 29401, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-12", "close": 23.892224, "volume": 178477, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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32.772646, 33.068649, 33.449172, 33.240825 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 31.680583, "volume": 33962, "typical_volume": 18397.1, "trend": 32.722625, "fair_value": 27.726139, "relative_strength": -14.814555, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.312658, "energy": 64.274438, "activity_lines": [ 32.369956, 32.758938, 33.265448, 33.178611 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.47651, "volume": 35584, "typical_volume": 18462.8, "trend": 32.764505, "fair_value": 27.757921, "relative_strength": -11.239424, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.982134, "energy": 75.415156, "activity_lines": [ 31.999406, 32.463693, 33.065483, 33.098216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.5656, "volume": 20615, "typical_volume": 19253.95, "trend": 32.811836, "fair_value": 27.789919, "relative_strength": -11.606573, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.507942, "energy": 75.248833, "activity_lines": [ 31.77658, 32.235528, 32.882451, 33.020868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.7572, "volume": 63813, "typical_volume": 20639.8, "trend": 32.852334, "fair_value": 27.822979, "relative_strength": -12.482086, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.877395, "energy": 74.615579, "activity_lines": [ 31.710371, 32.08437, 32.729686, 32.952826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.1225, "volume": 4219, "typical_volume": 19774.05, "trend": 32.908859, "fair_value": 27.858513, "relative_strength": -7.582771, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.251294, "energy": 76.683596, "activity_lines": [ 31.798114, 32.028606, 32.624927, 32.90574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.9788, "volume": 5453, "typical_volume": 19440.9, "trend": 32.983426, "fair_value": 27.900482, "relative_strength": -3.576967, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.155037, "energy": 35.556225, "activity_lines": [ 32.217554, 32.151194, 32.61619, 32.910253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.1277, "volume": 6774, "typical_volume": 19027.1, "trend": 33.067479, "fair_value": 27.94298, "relative_strength": -3.658907, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.448801, "energy": 25.672525, "activity_lines": [ 32.60008, 32.304569, 32.627303, 32.919561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.8113, "volume": 24433, "typical_volume": 19718.4, "trend": 33.15827, "fair_value": 27.990305, "relative_strength": -6.404495, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.472645, "energy": 29.162319, "activity_lines": [ 33.100393, 32.584402, 32.70594, 32.967549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }