{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df0c6693-e181-4318-9865-f9eca0935717", "symbol": "ICHB", "name": "Industrias CH, S. A. B. de C. V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.443, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.814, "architecture_energy": 17.346, "architecture_maturity": 48.629, "architecture_confidence": 77.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.85, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 58.84, "deceleration": 85.13, "rotation_down": 35.83, "downward_expansion": 22.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.888, 178.038546, 177.053715, 175.840517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 174.669998, "trend_reference": 174.662334, "distance_from_trend": 4.4e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 180.630385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.418375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015888, "excess_performance": 0.038779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 4.4e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032998, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13098, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22119, "relative_activity": 2.038054, "balance": 0.379325, "dry_up": 1.511541, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02416, "annualized_volatility": 0.187394, "from_high_reference": -0.040275, "from_low_reference": 0.102019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 174.662334, "fair_value_reference": 180.630385, "structural_low": 158.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02341, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.063196, "worst_return": -0.015323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011804, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10837, "worst_return": -0.069836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011339, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.132321, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302706, "worst_return": -0.074256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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178.119273, 174.847048, 174.274711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 180.0, "volume": 2477, "typical_volume": 7550.3, "trend": 174.029668, "fair_value": 181.346667, "relative_strength": 0.17589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.233054, "energy": 42.85348, "activity_lines": [ 179.366667, 179.012728, 175.436477, 174.680366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 180.0, "volume": 12183, "typical_volume": 7904.35, "trend": 174.196334, "fair_value": 181.199295, "relative_strength": 1.306286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.204257, "energy": 39.100766, "activity_lines": [ 179.466667, 179.600728, 176.020191, 175.065549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.0, "volume": 13281, "typical_volume": 8504.7, "trend": 174.392001, "fair_value": 181.067885, "relative_strength": 1.344472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.367507, "energy": 50.417959, "activity_lines": [ 179.7, 179.888728, 176.583191, 175.439979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 179.990005, "volume": 8898, "typical_volume": 8864.25, "trend": 174.594001, "fair_value": 180.935129, "relative_strength": 1.906345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.978491, "energy": 62.140614, "activity_lines": [ 179.996668, 179.878547, 177.112382, 175.801141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.0, "volume": 21321, "typical_volume": 9830.35, "trend": 174.465668, "fair_value": 180.774231, "relative_strength": -1.441309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.289825, "energy": 23.811956, "activity_lines": [ 178.330668, 178.92491, 177.110667, 175.827334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.669998, "volume": 22119, "typical_volume": 10853.0, "trend": 174.662334, "fair_value": 180.630385, "relative_strength": -1.418375, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.814188, "energy": 17.345527, "activity_lines": [ 176.888, 178.038546, 177.053715, 175.840517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }