{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df1489e9-d371-4e02-8701-bc467444707b", "symbol": "CRTA", "name": "Cirata plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.661, "architecture_energy": 67.437, "architecture_maturity": 20.221, "architecture_confidence": 84.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 12.37, "upward_expansion": 16.11, "deceleration": 34.59, "rotation_down": 73.82, "downward_expansion": 89.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.482167, 1.570182, 1.651345, 1.66522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.335, "trend_reference": 1.72875, "distance_from_trend": -0.227766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.527913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.785427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262431, "excess_performance": -0.313666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651952, "relative_activity": 1.113285, "balance": 0.438091, "dry_up": 0.834309, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161884, "annualized_volatility": 0.524222, "from_high_reference": -0.523214, "from_low_reference": 0.068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.72875, "fair_value_reference": 3.527913, "structural_low": 1.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.033822, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.061986, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.985896, "worst_return": -0.239875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.069343, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.082161, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.372549, "worst_return": -0.3375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1175, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.123933, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.277372, "worst_return": -0.435, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263705, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -15.903651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.621189, "energy": 18.217627, "activity_lines": [ 1.701333, 1.725455, 1.717036, 1.733081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.695, "volume": 248128, "typical_volume": 569721.4, "trend": 1.780083, "fair_value": 3.663587, "relative_strength": -14.885936, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.453961, "energy": 18.489723, "activity_lines": [ 1.704333, 1.712227, 1.717548, 1.727387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 441504, "typical_volume": 579329.25, "trend": 1.76925, "fair_value": 3.61551, "relative_strength": -24.721626, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.651735, "energy": 32.226964, "activity_lines": [ 1.636333, 1.667273, 1.699667, 1.709317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.5, "volume": 612737, "typical_volume": 607059.55, "trend": 1.74925, "fair_value": 3.570638, "relative_strength": -24.974428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.35788, "energy": 50.692336, "activity_lines": [ 1.580667, 1.629636, 1.682821, 1.691946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.335, "volume": 651952, "typical_volume": 585610.85, "trend": 1.72875, "fair_value": 3.527913, "relative_strength": -32.785427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.661489, "energy": 67.437457, "activity_lines": [ 1.482167, 1.570182, 1.651345, 1.66522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }