{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df17d5c8-eb76-4b7e-8fb8-99b2aff9569e", "symbol": "COV", "name": "Covivio", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.415, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.906, "architecture_energy": 20.481, "architecture_maturity": 32.363, "architecture_confidence": 84.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.85, "rotation_up": 24.19, "upward_expansion": 13.61, "deceleration": 43.56, "rotation_down": 34.38, "downward_expansion": 63.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.531391, 52.363248, 53.113143, 53.618581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.049999, "trend_reference": 53.982376, "distance_from_trend": -0.035796, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.014842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.410711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020249, "excess_performance": -0.07356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.199623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 744767, "relative_activity": 1.185811, "balance": 1.199623, "dry_up": 1.033965, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042364, "annualized_volatility": 0.302135, "from_high_reference": -0.148958, "from_low_reference": 0.052791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.982376, "fair_value_reference": 47.014842, "structural_low": 49.439999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.012635, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.005806, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.156279, "worst_return": -0.119775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009647, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.027102, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095519, "worst_return": -0.109849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00817, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033706, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.228139, "worst_return": -0.108165, 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"typical_volume": 780902.9, "trend": 54.081671, "fair_value": 46.693764, "relative_strength": -6.302711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.035727, "energy": 46.338997, "activity_lines": [ 51.974158, 52.36142, 53.446752, 53.872365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.099998, "volume": 714518, "typical_volume": 778952.4, "trend": 54.049974, "fair_value": 46.79654, "relative_strength": -5.536778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.557639, "energy": 33.582829, "activity_lines": [ 52.385272, 52.425362, 53.359447, 53.809031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.049999, "volume": 479483, "typical_volume": 763256.65, "trend": 54.002001, "fair_value": 46.910032, "relative_strength": -6.88248, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.680785, "energy": 22.395855, "activity_lines": [ 52.631809, 52.480214, 53.28211, 53.744517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.049999, "volume": 744767, "typical_volume": 628065.6, "trend": 53.982376, "fair_value": 47.014842, "relative_strength": -10.410711, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.905571, "energy": 20.481133, "activity_lines": [ 52.531391, 52.363248, 53.113143, 53.618581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }