{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df1b06e0-f601-4a00-b468-e9a540f236ff", "symbol": "FAST", "name": "Fastenal Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.061, "architecture_energy": 57.38, "architecture_maturity": 20.646, "architecture_confidence": 75.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.96, "rotation_up": 66.27, "upward_expansion": 82.78, "deceleration": 49.56, "rotation_down": 15.92, "downward_expansion": 11.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.471502, 47.686666, 46.644157, 46.252725 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.84, "trend_reference": 45.751455, "distance_from_trend": 0.133079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.952283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.925711, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091943, "excess_performance": -0.09551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009257, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173912, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53447, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43761124, "relative_activity": 1.197767, "balance": 1.53447, "dry_up": 1.280104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050797, "annualized_volatility": 0.245914, "from_high_reference": -0.001156, "from_low_reference": 0.344799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.751455, "fair_value_reference": 37.952283, "structural_low": 42.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.018739, "positive_rate": 0.71875, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.001715, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.137989, "worst_return": -0.134827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03109, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022435, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.198272, "worst_return": -0.089624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044921, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005516, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285769, "worst_return": -0.133124, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 47.112043, 46.157238, 45.708169, 45.430944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.240054, "volume": 38933130, "typical_volume": 35696704.95, "trend": 44.850361, "fair_value": 37.413236, "relative_strength": -11.543589, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.001737, "energy": 48.346272, "activity_lines": [ 46.896362, 46.293329, 45.772488, 45.530676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.24543, "volume": 62321452, "typical_volume": 37110440.85, "trend": 44.962154, "fair_value": 37.529967, "relative_strength": -9.312007, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.50342, "energy": 28.085813, "activity_lines": [ 46.385803, 46.224398, 45.74081, 45.556164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.767204, "volume": 35288503, "typical_volume": 36696161.5, "trend": 45.150721, "fair_value": 37.654547, "relative_strength": -4.368931, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.019061, "energy": 26.834762, "activity_lines": [ 46.470806, 46.412599, 45.856675, 45.672619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.71, "volume": 45706393, "typical_volume": 37168959.45, "trend": 45.407644, "fair_value": 37.792217, "relative_strength": -2.668488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.60922, "energy": 26.795483, "activity_lines": [ 46.811595, 46.708451, 46.059685, 45.837734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.84, "volume": 43761124, "typical_volume": 36535600.15, "trend": 45.751455, "fair_value": 37.952283, "relative_strength": 0.925711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.060651, "energy": 57.380036, "activity_lines": [ 48.471502, 47.686666, 46.644157, 46.252725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }