{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df1c24de-b3e9-4441-9b70-89bf46fb0e76", "symbol": "WGR", "name": "Western Gold Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.781, "architecture_energy": 80.855, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.806, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 40.86, "rotation_down": 74.83, "downward_expansion": 91.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0934, 0.101836, 0.11679, 0.130991 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.088, "trend_reference": 0.152417, "distance_from_trend": -0.422635, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.079074, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.0235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.497143, "excess_performance": -0.560849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.422635, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.945252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.450235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.497143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157051, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5667252, "relative_activity": 3.411383, "balance": 0.157051, "dry_up": 2.387548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174825, "annualized_volatility": 0.771594, "from_high_reference": -0.674074, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.152417, "fair_value_reference": 0.079074, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.046512, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.042624, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": -0.30137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113146, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.315068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.256202, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.275146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.35, "worst_return": -0.410959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.323529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.322581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.25, "active": 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0.15935, "fair_value": 0.078439, "relative_strength": -34.749985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.877133, "energy": 76.05502, "activity_lines": [ 0.102733, 0.110745, 0.12529, 0.139604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.094, "volume": 4466393, "typical_volume": 1625393.5, "trend": 0.15615, "fair_value": 0.078766, "relative_strength": -39.485592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.482974, "energy": 73.699562, "activity_lines": [ 0.098533, 0.106418, 0.12111, 0.135388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.088, "volume": 5667252, "typical_volume": 1661276.75, "trend": 0.152417, "fair_value": 0.079074, "relative_strength": -45.0235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.780788, "energy": 80.85477, "activity_lines": [ 0.0934, 0.101836, 0.11679, 0.130991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }