{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df2245ad-acda-4da7-b2d7-d662404ec37a", "symbol": "HSEU", "name": "HSBC Europe Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.149, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.517, "architecture_energy": 69.602, "architecture_maturity": 88.19, "architecture_confidence": 52.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 54.22, "upward_expansion": 78.5, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.697, 21.686273, 21.245743, 20.8052 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.1, "trend_reference": 20.2776, "distance_from_trend": 0.089873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.854282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311239, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.499142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115711, "excess_performance": -0.055181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057874, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115711, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.060015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 499, "relative_activity": 0.698586, "balance": 0.060015, "dry_up": 4.286014, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013279, "annualized_volatility": 0.126074, "from_high_reference": -0.00113, "from_low_reference": 0.277752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.2776, "fair_value_reference": 16.854282, "structural_low": 18.648001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.00598, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008086, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.089945, "worst_return": -0.100478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029204, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.039373, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.091299, "worst_return": -0.064021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036947, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.022292, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.141935, "worst_return": -0.153511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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21.652667, 21.341073, 20.607938, 20.246084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.969999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1116.05, "trend": 19.8738, "fair_value": 16.657346, "relative_strength": -0.259298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.822936, "energy": 86.471579, "activity_lines": [ 21.806666, 21.525, 20.780509, 20.389064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.68, "volume": 6707, "typical_volume": 1451.4, "trend": 19.976333, "fair_value": 16.708731, "relative_strength": -0.139996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.521778, "energy": 68.687861, "activity_lines": [ 21.809, 21.604272, 20.915166, 20.505593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.375, "volume": 5040, "typical_volume": 689.35, "trend": 20.0687, "fair_value": 16.753865, "relative_strength": -1.333654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.492752, "energy": 66.595271, "activity_lines": [ 21.674, 21.603727, 21.011862, 20.59583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 689.35, "trend": 20.161067, "fair_value": 16.801577, "relative_strength": -1.925569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.0279, "energy": 57.972042, "activity_lines": [ 21.555, 21.584454, 21.099038, 20.680107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.1, "volume": 499, "typical_volume": 714.3, "trend": 20.2776, "fair_value": 16.854282, "relative_strength": -1.499142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.51717, "energy": 69.602317, "activity_lines": [ 21.697, 21.686273, 21.245743, 20.8052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }