{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df248e2e-2474-48d2-85b5-34b20f9c0c24", "symbol": "GCOR", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST ACCESS US AGGREGATE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.135, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.998, "architecture_energy": 64.219, "architecture_maturity": 4.685, "architecture_confidence": 83.337, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 10.29, "upward_expansion": 14.32, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 70.49, "downward_expansion": 89.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.492423, 40.633247, 40.731883, 40.808615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.56, "trend_reference": 40.910071, "distance_from_trend": -0.008557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.894232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.522404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013032, "excess_performance": -0.138657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001008, "read": "Falling" 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40.277395, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003851, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.010181, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.047936, "worst_return": -0.042956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008853, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01261, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.033767, "worst_return": -0.069309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026229, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008229, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.034572, "worst_return": -0.079759, 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.152672, "energy": 18.715535, "activity_lines": [ 40.862421, 40.842245, 40.87033, 40.92499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.683469, "volume": 298343, "typical_volume": 356687.4, "trend": 40.960158, "fair_value": 38.817235, "relative_strength": -8.552153, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.825864, "energy": 27.099895, "activity_lines": [ 40.787398, 40.81794, 40.847466, 40.906777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.412392, "volume": 302482, "typical_volume": 356884.95, "trend": 40.942236, "fair_value": 38.841114, "relative_strength": -8.389939, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.820469, "energy": 56.92266, "activity_lines": [ 40.638363, 40.749598, 40.803356, 40.871437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.332663, "volume": 391036, "typical_volume": 362319.9, "trend": 40.924169, "fair_value": 38.866259, "relative_strength": -9.244605, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.471523, "energy": 69.150248, "activity_lines": [ 40.50016, 40.668278, 40.755582, 40.83211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.56, "volume": 398224, "typical_volume": 367899.75, "trend": 40.910071, "fair_value": 38.894232, "relative_strength": -11.522404, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.998404, "energy": 64.218883, "activity_lines": [ 40.492423, 40.633247, 40.731883, 40.808615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }