{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df2ad9c8-8f97-468f-ab4a-55a8d5103667", "symbol": "DOCN", "name": "DigitalOcean Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.809, "architecture_energy": 17.598, "architecture_maturity": 72.023, "architecture_confidence": 76.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.38, "rotation_up": 16.3, "upward_expansion": 41.43, "deceleration": 87.48, "rotation_down": 38.89, "downward_expansion": 33.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.978667, 129.835636, 135.298619, 123.870516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 124.15, "trend_reference": 105.987, "distance_from_trend": 0.17137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.893654, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.539184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 44.209777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.97314, "excess_performance": 0.847516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.406378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.539184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.521116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.442098, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.528359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.97314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19443679, "relative_activity": 0.977264, "balance": 1.090037, "dry_up": 0.924333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199563, "annualized_volatility": 0.96863, "from_high_reference": -0.337867, "from_low_reference": 3.312261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.987, "fair_value_reference": 48.893654, "structural_low": 51.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055332, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.072283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082068, "worst_return": -0.256724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.116748, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.153174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20787, "worst_return": -0.162091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.192465, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.068554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231663, "worst_return": -0.156038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073047, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.207688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.195731, "active": false 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.64426, "energy": 28.216771, "activity_lines": [ 130.582, 143.462727, 135.724048, 119.911806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.54, "volume": 18373943, "typical_volume": 20021391.9, "trend": 101.337667, "fair_value": 47.799103, "relative_strength": 56.199422, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.032688, "energy": 25.047128, "activity_lines": [ 125.623333, 138.621455, 136.051524, 121.503398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.5, "volume": 20367012, "typical_volume": 20155552.05, "trend": 103.622, "fair_value": 48.327244, "relative_strength": 43.966066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.390528, "energy": 16.763226, "activity_lines": [ 121.966667, 133.251636, 135.474762, 122.546129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.15, "volume": 19443679, "typical_volume": 19896029.45, "trend": 105.987, "fair_value": 48.893654, "relative_strength": 44.209777, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.808927, "energy": 17.598425, "activity_lines": [ 121.978667, 129.835636, 135.298619, 123.870516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }