{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df2b1e25-9969-4d2e-b2a7-d7c1e704c76e", "symbol": "LIO", "name": "Lion Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.794, "architecture_energy": 42.617, "architecture_maturity": 70.339, "architecture_confidence": 63.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.12, "rotation_up": 25.08, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 45.15, "downward_expansion": 67.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012133, 0.012091, 0.013262, 0.014222 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.0154, "distance_from_trend": -0.220779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.673186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294118, "excess_performance": -0.357823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318529, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.509746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.159731, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 609647, "relative_activity": 1.357823, "balance": 0.159731, "dry_up": 1.0356, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13141, "annualized_volatility": 0.66221, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0154, "fair_value_reference": 0.017609, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.057705, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.232558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.172414, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.177216, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.123916, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109825, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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28250, "typical_volume": 469292.6, "trend": 0.015533, "fair_value": 0.017878, "relative_strength": -18.587234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.273612, "energy": 66.076592, "activity_lines": [ 0.012067, 0.012491, 0.01409, 0.014901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 580393, "typical_volume": 460729.7, "trend": 0.015467, "fair_value": 0.017788, "relative_strength": -25.150951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.129146, "energy": 65.739209, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012091, 0.013695, 0.014609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 641600, "typical_volume": 475229.05, "trend": 0.015533, "fair_value": 0.017699, "relative_strength": -13.619475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.386812, "energy": 45.631755, "activity_lines": [ 0.0122, 0.012164, 0.013514, 0.014449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 609647, "typical_volume": 448988.65, "trend": 0.0154, "fair_value": 0.017609, "relative_strength": -22.673186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.793971, "energy": 42.61746, "activity_lines": [ 0.012133, 0.012091, 0.013262, 0.014222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }