{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df2c8344-647d-4a0f-af83-0001700e017e", "symbol": "MANAKSIA", "name": "Manaksia Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.297, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.517, "architecture_energy": 34.196, "architecture_maturity": 20.039, "architecture_confidence": 82.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.13, "rotation_up": 10.69, "upward_expansion": 12.48, "deceleration": 48.28, "rotation_down": 55.85, "downward_expansion": 73.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.476667, 57.075455, 57.921048, 57.671871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.970001, "trend_reference": 58.46, "distance_from_trend": -0.025487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.541823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.349225, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.826087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109287, "excess_performance": -0.065578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.349225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69519, "relative_activity": 0.709129, "balance": 0.771945, "dry_up": 0.801472, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071779, "annualized_volatility": 0.417266, "from_high_reference": -0.230031, "from_low_reference": 0.353207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.46, "fair_value_reference": 87.541823, "structural_low": 42.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004018, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.017113, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.795076, "worst_return": -0.240268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032325, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04273, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.586301, "worst_return": -0.172867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.127173, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.105572, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.260274, "worst_return": -0.430756, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.202234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006453, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 129.857498, "volume": 372584, "typical_volume": 1333047.9, "trend": 134.426015, "fair_value": 75.69246, "relative_strength": 11.949664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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16.450517, "activity_lines": [ 58.131334, 58.701636, 58.126381, 58.34458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.18, "volume": 108575, "typical_volume": 117254.7, "trend": 59.190666, "fair_value": 88.996178, "relative_strength": -7.063741, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.712635, "energy": 19.321212, "activity_lines": [ 57.805334, 58.319636, 58.138095, 58.209484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.82, "volume": 72997, "typical_volume": 113361.2, "trend": 58.982666, "fair_value": 88.467905, "relative_strength": -6.60276, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.151263, "energy": 24.442075, "activity_lines": [ 57.036667, 57.768182, 58.031809, 57.992021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.73, "volume": 63196, "typical_volume": 107453.8, "trend": 58.679666, "fair_value": 87.989589, "relative_strength": -8.58898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.694009, "energy": 33.196548, "activity_lines": [ 56.460667, 57.289636, 57.921619, 57.782172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.970001, "volume": 69519, "typical_volume": 98034.35, "trend": 58.46, "fair_value": 87.541823, "relative_strength": -6.826087, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.517144, "energy": 34.196275, "activity_lines": [ 56.476667, 57.075455, 57.921048, 57.671871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }