{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df2f3ea2-13ca-460b-be10-33ba6e6a62df", "symbol": "MOHITIND", "name": "Mohit Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 90.385, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.631, "architecture_energy": 24.036, "architecture_maturity": 34.044, "architecture_confidence": 65.599, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.92, "rotation_up": 40.53, "upward_expansion": 38.74, "deceleration": 38.93, "rotation_down": 36.04, "downward_expansion": 27.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.286, 23.787636, 23.613285, 23.529355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.299999, "trend_reference": 23.727667, "distance_from_trend": 0.150556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.248846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.823429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05814, "excess_performance": 0.101849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018234, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.649954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1371692, "relative_activity": 12.502884, "balance": 10.649954, "dry_up": 3.287873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106509, "annualized_volatility": 0.552934, "from_high_reference": -0.320727, "from_low_reference": 0.467742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.727667, "fair_value_reference": 26.248846, "structural_low": 18.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.039969, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057494, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.458145, "worst_return": -0.140584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005216, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024671, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.373935, "worst_return": -0.195489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036882, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056993, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.512782, "worst_return": -0.242344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02646, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067794, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.787031, "worst_return": -0.222337, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059371, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.9, "volume": 86288, "typical_volume": 177126.6, "trend": 14.488333, "fair_value": 13.331731, "relative_strength": -11.695375, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.416642, "energy": 14.76245, "activity_lines": [ 23.342, 23.380363, 23.302905, 23.566236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.75, "volume": 42059, "typical_volume": 48231.6, "trend": 24.153, "fair_value": 26.058269, "relative_strength": -15.563785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.510161, "energy": 17.737954, "activity_lines": [ 23.182, 23.245636, 23.25919, 23.464043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.0, "volume": 13003, "typical_volume": 46614.15, "trend": 23.965, "fair_value": 26.117243, "relative_strength": -12.105506, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.271481, "energy": 20.628029, "activity_lines": [ 23.087333, 23.192545, 23.250428, 23.389656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.58, "volume": 16097, "typical_volume": 44783.65, "trend": 23.749667, "fair_value": 26.174487, "relative_strength": -15.385511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.244302, "energy": 26.276057, "activity_lines": [ 22.828, 23.057091, 23.206762, 23.300301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 1371692, "typical_volume": 109710.05, "trend": 23.727667, "fair_value": 26.248846, "relative_strength": 1.823429, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.631189, "energy": 24.035687, "activity_lines": [ 24.286, 23.787636, 23.613285, 23.529355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }