{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df33bd2b-ee05-4f3c-a6e0-0a5b9d5de043", "symbol": "BLT", "name": "BLIS Technologies Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.761, "architecture_energy": 53.306, "architecture_maturity": 40.525, "architecture_confidence": 90.088, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.87, "rotation_up": 61.5, "upward_expansion": 84.26, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 18.0, "downward_expansion": 15.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0172, 0.0168, 0.016481, 0.016333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.016267, "distance_from_trend": 0.106557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.017103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.019008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058824, "excess_performance": 0.03055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.626827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1899329, "relative_activity": 1.265437, "balance": 1.626827, "dry_up": 0.994685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07906, "annualized_volatility": 0.482991, "from_high_reference": -0.1, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.016267, "fair_value_reference": 0.017103, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.008422, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050623, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.070346, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": 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"typical_volume": 1312045.1, "trend": 0.016233, "fair_value": 0.017237, "relative_strength": -5.746869, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.816247, "energy": 5.618147, "activity_lines": [ 0.0162, 0.016236, 0.016105, 0.01612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 990489, "typical_volume": 1349801.9, "trend": 0.016233, "fair_value": 0.017192, "relative_strength": -0.042253, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.51134, "energy": 19.16108, "activity_lines": [ 0.016533, 0.0164, 0.016205, 0.01617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.017, "volume": 1759297, "typical_volume": 1409479.45, "trend": 0.016233, "fair_value": 0.017147, "relative_strength": 0.762103, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.191086, "energy": 30.967544, "activity_lines": [ 0.016733, 0.016527, 0.0163, 0.016219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1899329, "typical_volume": 1500927.25, "trend": 0.016267, "fair_value": 0.017103, "relative_strength": 6.019008, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.760683, "energy": 53.305846, "activity_lines": [ 0.0172, 0.0168, 0.016481, 0.016333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }