{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df33f3c2-2d00-4aa5-8a9e-940a2eff844b", "symbol": "FEDFINA", "name": "Fedbank Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.634, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.152, "architecture_energy": 14.754, "architecture_maturity": 30.851, "architecture_confidence": 82.756, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.13, "rotation_up": 29.78, "upward_expansion": 55.57, "deceleration": 84.44, "rotation_down": 26.23, "downward_expansion": 19.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.922666, 153.537091, 153.151952, 149.811247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 149.589996, "trend_reference": 146.822999, "distance_from_trend": 0.018846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.107305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.850029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039252, "excess_performance": 0.082962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017745, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0285, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5146302, "relative_activity": 0.979166, "balance": 0.80198, "dry_up": 2.032918, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0712, "annualized_volatility": 0.24322, "from_high_reference": -0.161867, "from_low_reference": 0.25632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.822999, "fair_value_reference": 126.107305, "structural_low": 119.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004447, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111188, "worst_return": -0.06119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.043876, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043876, "worst_return": 0.043876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.068823, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068823, "worst_return": 0.068823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106314, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131573, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06119, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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"relative_strength": 12.900266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.077742, "energy": 26.167873, "activity_lines": [ 154.374665, 154.928181, 151.026142, 148.17987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 158.600006, "volume": 28884255, "typical_volume": 5135953.25, "trend": 147.117666, "fair_value": 125.554855, "relative_strength": 11.24763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.520768, "energy": 29.810204, "activity_lines": [ 156.038668, 155.686727, 152.252428, 148.958021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 150.529999, "volume": 5138477, "typical_volume": 5259282.75, "trend": 147.211333, "fair_value": 125.734532, "relative_strength": 7.662428, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.116889, "energy": 23.281435, "activity_lines": [ 154.625334, 154.774, 152.578095, 149.178171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 154.440002, "volume": 3569419, "typical_volume": 5210388.8, "trend": 147.005999, "fair_value": 125.939571, "relative_strength": 7.31742, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.065027, "energy": 27.088281, "activity_lines": [ 154.784668, 154.591273, 153.162571, 149.644537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 149.589996, "volume": 5146302, "typical_volume": 5255800.65, "trend": 146.822999, "fair_value": 126.107305, "relative_strength": 2.850029, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.151871, "energy": 14.753673, "activity_lines": [ 152.922666, 153.537091, 153.151952, 149.811247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }