{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df36c7eb-bf8e-442d-897a-e921b661c357", "symbol": "MTS", "name": "ArcelorMittal S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.298, "architecture_energy": 67.822, "architecture_maturity": 19.738, "architecture_confidence": 91.031, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.02, "rotation_up": 71.03, "upward_expansion": 91.12, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 17.01, "downward_expansion": 13.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.484103, 59.002313, 57.239853, 55.16186 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.959999, "trend_reference": 52.610349, "distance_from_trend": 0.196723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.412577, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.070196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.984028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.236547, "excess_performance": 0.112117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.070196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.22984, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.236547, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.888116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1265013, "relative_activity": 1.321202, "balance": 2.888116, "dry_up": 1.018764, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065873, "annualized_volatility": 0.43486, "from_high_reference": -0.032702, "from_low_reference": 1.325843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.610349, "fair_value_reference": 30.412577, "structural_low": 39.666987, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.041344, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.01427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.209366, "worst_return": -0.220946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.098656, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.043474, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.294841, "worst_return": -0.11827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06296, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.066551, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.51983, "worst_return": -0.236712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.481021, "relative_strength": 21.716012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.673004, "energy": 29.967602, "activity_lines": [ 56.734901, 56.973142, 54.526808, 52.777708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.805508, "volume": 664211, "typical_volume": 1070136.65, "trend": 50.459029, "fair_value": 29.700996, "relative_strength": 21.705475, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.829986, "energy": 31.77062, "activity_lines": [ 57.044102, 57.227213, 55.045453, 53.294507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.763279, "volume": 789750, "typical_volume": 1015161.3, "trend": 51.14822, "fair_value": 29.921894, "relative_strength": 20.440212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.859535, "energy": 43.412784, "activity_lines": [ 57.860193, 57.551172, 55.643299, 53.830265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.678821, "volume": 1182774, "typical_volume": 985356.2, "trend": 51.850878, "fair_value": 30.158256, "relative_strength": 21.995972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.866785, "energy": 52.163814, "activity_lines": [ 59.063912, 58.105534, 56.371201, 54.445142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.959999, "volume": 1265013, "typical_volume": 957471.1, "trend": 52.610349, "fair_value": 30.412577, "relative_strength": 22.984028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.297592, "energy": 67.821998, "activity_lines": [ 60.484103, 59.002313, 57.239853, 55.16186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }