{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df3e7a99-1b15-4771-b6f4-0d0aea98f9d4", "symbol": "603111", "name": "Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.834, "architecture_energy": 47.525, "architecture_maturity": 69.997, "architecture_confidence": 91.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.49, "rotation_up": 23.92, "upward_expansion": 7.26, "deceleration": 55.34, "rotation_down": 47.44, "downward_expansion": 75.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.746667, 5.790635, 5.958709, 6.156989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.77, "trend_reference": 6.438303, "distance_from_trend": -0.103801, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.988259, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036448, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.042569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189607, "excess_performance": -0.146403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036448, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189607, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.133512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30121203, "relative_activity": 1.098722, "balance": 0.133512, "dry_up": 1.100166, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053442, "annualized_volatility": 0.184604, "from_high_reference": -0.314727, "from_low_reference": 0.04529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.438303, "fair_value_reference": 5.988259, "structural_low": 5.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.013274, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.021532, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.135667, "worst_return": -0.095568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043405, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.245077, "worst_return": -0.177825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.12963, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.125505, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.322936, "worst_return": -0.090526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -74.417105, "energy": 55.864727, "activity_lines": [ 5.762, 5.828268, 6.042081, 6.250447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.77, "volume": 24410266, "typical_volume": 27834020.05, "trend": 6.474303, "fair_value": 5.979798, "relative_strength": -12.987779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.894881, "energy": 49.875483, "activity_lines": [ 5.757333, 5.805087, 5.997705, 6.202428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.77, "volume": 30121203, "typical_volume": 27414756.35, "trend": 6.438303, "fair_value": 5.988259, "relative_strength": -15.042569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.833793, "energy": 47.524711, "activity_lines": [ 5.746667, 5.790635, 5.958709, 6.156989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }