{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df435641-4cef-4b40-9af6-d5d4ff7a95ac", "symbol": "MGEL4", "name": "Mangels Industrial S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.712, "architecture_energy": 66.356, "architecture_maturity": 46.946, "architecture_confidence": 95.199, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.42, "rotation_up": 28.29, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 39.56, "rotation_down": 49.35, "downward_expansion": 89.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.234, 5.258909, 5.426524, 5.612731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.853667, "distance_from_trend": -0.103126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.248013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.43231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.458148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216418, "excess_performance": -0.15937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.43231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216418, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11500, "relative_activity": 0.429585, "balance": 0.570533, "dry_up": 0.197983, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041026, "annualized_volatility": 0.290816, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.280488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.853667, "fair_value_reference": 9.248013, "structural_low": 5.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.014778, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.005666, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.27572, "worst_return": -0.226488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.028015, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.469136, "worst_return": -0.408889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008914, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.518519, "worst_return": -0.462963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004635, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.213543, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132723, "worst_return": -0.524328, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.603704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019417, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.5, "volume": 12800, "typical_volume": 9375.0, "trend": 14.794, "fair_value": 13.762885, "relative_strength": 7.264938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.812921, "energy": 66.968693, "activity_lines": [ 5.272, 5.302909, 5.566095, 5.742194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 28090.0, "trend": 5.903333, "fair_value": 9.415641, "relative_strength": -15.334643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.547453, "energy": 74.217776, "activity_lines": [ 5.256667, 5.282, 5.517048, 5.698645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 27345.0, "trend": 5.878333, "fair_value": 9.334872, "relative_strength": -17.924578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.679735, "energy": 79.361696, "activity_lines": [ 5.231333, 5.260727, 5.467143, 5.653269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 11500, "typical_volume": 26770.0, "trend": 5.853667, "fair_value": 9.248013, "relative_strength": -14.458148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.711829, "energy": 66.355506, "activity_lines": [ 5.234, 5.258909, 5.426524, 5.612731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }