{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df56ed0d-a8f4-4d23-b0ce-c4990afe8595", "symbol": "NMRA", "name": "Neumora Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.289, "architecture_energy": 39.616, "architecture_maturity": 54.189, "architecture_confidence": 93.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.72, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 5.82, "deceleration": 49.74, "rotation_down": 41.73, "downward_expansion": 74.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.597333, 1.612545, 1.718143, 1.906946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.63, "trend_reference": 2.121, "distance_from_trend": -0.231495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.644789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.754695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.96455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231132, "excess_performance": -0.418586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.754695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231132, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2911452, "relative_activity": 0.334494, "balance": 0.87994, "dry_up": 0.386287, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177907, "annualized_volatility": 0.915715, "from_high_reference": -0.553425, "from_low_reference": 0.963501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.121, "fair_value_reference": 6.644789, "structural_low": 0.83015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038229, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.527531, "worst_return": -0.427611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.467675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.349594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.240041, "worst_return": -0.30469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.557522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.557522, "worst_return": 0.557522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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1.826905, 2.016946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.49, "volume": 2443333, "typical_volume": 8773284.75, "trend": 2.142333, "fair_value": 6.711787, "relative_strength": -34.578644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.724084, "energy": 43.622407, "activity_lines": [ 1.594, 1.626727, 1.775333, 1.974237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.61, "volume": 4294502, "typical_volume": 8725966.9, "trend": 2.140667, "fair_value": 6.678, "relative_strength": -29.497894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.333012, "energy": 39.237055, "activity_lines": [ 1.591333, 1.615636, 1.742476, 1.939892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.63, "volume": 2911452, "typical_volume": 8704048.8, "trend": 2.121, "fair_value": 6.644789, "relative_strength": -31.96455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.288684, "energy": 39.616219, "activity_lines": [ 1.597333, 1.612545, 1.718143, 1.906946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }