{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df60145a-2590-44f5-a715-fdabd09c10ba", "symbol": "CRPG5", "name": "Tronox Pigmentos do Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.271, "architecture_energy": 94.679, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.454, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.95, "upward_expansion": 21.93, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 87.46, "downward_expansion": 99.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.520667, 12.498727, 14.035619, 15.126796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.8, "trend_reference": 16.528333, "distance_from_trend": -0.346577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.308808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.555717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.887407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.440124, "excess_performance": -0.383076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.555717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.368874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.440124, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.177584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33700, "relative_activity": 2.154731, "balance": 0.177584, "dry_up": 2.068414, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0901, "annualized_volatility": 0.282751, "from_high_reference": -0.576138, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.528333, "fair_value_reference": 24.308808, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.040547, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.054127, "regime_survival": 0.921053, "best_return": 0.825801, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.178378, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.146758, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.593389, "worst_return": -0.382151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.193894, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.218959, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.200498, "worst_return": -0.433273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.413899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.259029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.820538, "energy": 87.408461, "activity_lines": [ 14.864, 15.482727, 16.448048, 17.100688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 9385.0, "trend": 17.638333, "fair_value": 25.253214, "relative_strength": -22.708549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.501618, "energy": 87.842763, "activity_lines": [ 14.518, 15.110364, 16.141, 16.85415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.8, "volume": 34800, "typical_volume": 10770.0, "trend": 17.396667, "fair_value": 25.08822, "relative_strength": -30.170001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.584927, "energy": 89.706185, "activity_lines": [ 13.921333, 14.581818, 15.745333, 16.542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.5, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 10950.0, "trend": 17.247333, "fair_value": 24.889224, "relative_strength": -29.545684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.840677, "energy": 92.143172, "activity_lines": [ 13.338667, 14.086909, 15.35681, 16.226086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.07, "volume": 35400, "typical_volume": 12215.0, "trend": 17.050667, "fair_value": 24.688933, "relative_strength": -31.438145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.700159, "energy": 92.92399, "activity_lines": [ 12.762667, 13.604364, 14.955429, 15.892064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.2, "volume": 47100, "typical_volume": 14220.0, "trend": 16.811, "fair_value": 24.484144, "relative_strength": -37.165936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.603179, "energy": 95.233894, "activity_lines": [ 12.092, 13.039818, 14.498952, 15.514602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.8, "volume": 33700, "typical_volume": 15640.0, "trend": 16.528333, "fair_value": 24.308808, "relative_strength": -36.887407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.270634, "energy": 94.678698, "activity_lines": [ 11.520667, 12.498727, 14.035619, 15.126796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }