{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df645069-58bb-4691-9464-a243e5e6bb7a", "symbol": "LON", "name": "Longino & Cardenal S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.578, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.968, "architecture_energy": 40.101, "architecture_maturity": 62.121, "architecture_confidence": 77.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.74, "rotation_up": 17.83, "upward_expansion": 53.13, "deceleration": 87.61, "rotation_down": 40.11, "downward_expansion": 31.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.015333, 1.038909, 1.040167, 0.996602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.01, "trend_reference": 0.939833, "distance_from_trend": 0.074659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.662821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392598, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.961012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2625, "excess_performance": 0.091608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074659, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392598, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02489, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.163132, "balance": 2.333333, "dry_up": 0.179445, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023229, "annualized_volatility": 0.292956, "from_high_reference": -0.217054, "from_low_reference": 0.355705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.939833, "fair_value_reference": 1.662821, "structural_low": 0.745, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036269, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083195, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061111, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.114286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.114286, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.119048, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119048, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.214286, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-11-12", "end": "2022-02-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-02-25", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.0875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034965, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095652, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.291262, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.561947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5075.0, "trend": 2.563333, "fair_value": 3.176154, "relative_strength": -21.483347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.532695, "energy": 39.64895, "activity_lines": [ 2.356, 2.378545, 2.368095, 2.451742 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.34, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5125.0, "trend": 2.548667, "fair_value": 3.174487, "relative_strength": -22.573342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.20737, "energy": 41.605499, "activity_lines": [ 2.348, 2.374545, 2.360095, 2.437333 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.34, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 5050.0, "trend": 2.536, "fair_value": 3.172821, "relative_strength": -22.941543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.842986, "energy": 35.508123, "activity_lines": [ 2.345333, 2.367636, 2.354571, 2.423871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.04, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 5625.0, "trend": 2.513333, "fair_value": 3.169103, "relative_strength": -30.976413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.867361, "energy": 77.768607, "activity_lines": [ 2.244, 2.303636, 2.322476, 2.391871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 1.98, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 6025.0, "trend": 2.486, "fair_value": 3.166282, "relative_strength": -33.712591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.636852, "energy": 89.734853, "activity_lines": [ 2.141333, 2.234909, 2.287524, 2.357462 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 1.98, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6025.0, "trend": 2.455333, "fair_value": 3.164872, "relative_strength": -32.036201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.847674, "energy": 93.052238, "activity_lines": [ 2.064, 2.176364, 2.255333, 2.324817 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 1.93, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 6075.0, "trend": 2.423, "fair_value": 3.163141, "relative_strength": -32.034511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.932634, "energy": 94.076067, "activity_lines": [ 1.995333, 2.118182, 2.221143, 2.290925 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.92, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5875.0, "trend": 2.389667, "fair_value": 3.160064, "relative_strength": -30.395675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.228879, "energy": 92.188393, "activity_lines": [ 1.950667, 2.067091, 2.189, 2.258473 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.93, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5650.0, "trend": 2.356667, "fair_value": 3.157308, "relative_strength": -30.1247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.106328, "energy": 89.941468, "activity_lines": [ 1.937333, 2.025818, 2.15981, 2.228817 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 1.95, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5675.0, "trend": 2.324333, "fair_value": 3.153782, "relative_strength": -26.185863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.434852, "energy": 88.411972, "activity_lines": [ 1.938, 1.995273, 2.13381, 2.202581 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 1.96, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 5550.0, "trend": 2.295, "fair_value": 3.151603, "relative_strength": -24.764572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.775036, "energy": 84.552497, "activity_lines": [ 1.944, 1.974, 2.109952, 2.179075 ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 1.96, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 5950.0, "trend": 2.265, "fair_value": 3.149423, "relative_strength": -27.586461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.612076, 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"trend": 0.936333, "fair_value": 1.706731, "relative_strength": -9.426065, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.13745, "energy": 63.483386, "activity_lines": [ 1.090667, 1.080455, 1.01619, 0.969269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.05, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 15800.0, "trend": 0.937667, "fair_value": 1.697436, "relative_strength": -11.38315, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.602429, "energy": 57.016977, "activity_lines": [ 1.076667, 1.077636, 1.026, 0.976602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.03, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 15500.0, "trend": 0.937667, "fair_value": 1.688526, "relative_strength": -11.015803, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.860281, "energy": 48.772572, "activity_lines": [ 1.059333, 1.070182, 1.032738, 0.982559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 15150.0, "trend": 0.937, "fair_value": 1.679872, "relative_strength": -11.795039, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.12804, "energy": 35.123354, "activity_lines": [ 1.039333, 1.059091, 1.036405, 0.987226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.01, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 15350.0, "trend": 0.937667, "fair_value": 1.671474, "relative_strength": -11.347202, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.42239, "energy": 44.147538, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.048545, 1.038881, 0.991935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.01, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 15325.0, "trend": 0.939833, "fair_value": 1.662821, "relative_strength": -12.961012, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.968142, "energy": 40.100739, "activity_lines": [ 1.015333, 1.038909, 1.040167, 0.996602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }