{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df6db96d-ab57-41f3-ba32-8da0d9fb2fb8", "symbol": "XDWF", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.925, "architecture_energy": 95.66, "architecture_maturity": 26.954, "architecture_confidence": 72.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 89.03, "upward_expansion": 99.62, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 8.51, "downward_expansion": 21.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.156, 38.386636, 36.897833, 35.907602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 39.724998, "trend_reference": 34.940833, "distance_from_trend": 0.136922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.769618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.029208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157657, "excess_performance": 0.074774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035432, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040292, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.468571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12045, "relative_activity": 0.825396, "balance": 7.468571, "dry_up": 0.26535, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014891, "annualized_volatility": 0.127548, "from_high_reference": -0.033097, "from_low_reference": 0.265127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.940833, "fair_value_reference": 29.769618, "structural_low": 31.485001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002975, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.000754, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.238613, "worst_return": -0.207006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013224, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013272, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.115719, "worst_return": -0.146471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025709, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.003976, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.151757, "worst_return": -0.126487, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 1084, "typical_volume": 14382.55, "trend": 34.660333, "fair_value": 29.578956, "relative_strength": 3.474164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.695571, "energy": 97.074674, "activity_lines": [ 38.336334, 37.441364, 36.070143, 35.298355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.185001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13990.75, "trend": 34.806333, "fair_value": 29.672251, "relative_strength": 4.041085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.417443, "energy": 95.559292, "activity_lines": [ 38.735334, 37.906637, 36.476048, 35.590269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.724998, "volume": 12045, "typical_volume": 14593.0, "trend": 34.940833, "fair_value": 29.769618, "relative_strength": 4.029208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.924581, "energy": 95.659519, "activity_lines": [ 39.156, 38.386636, 36.897833, 35.907602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }