{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df75730d-1b25-4588-af13-1dd50dd2e65e", "symbol": "6144", "name": "Deltamac(Taiwan)Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.923, "architecture_energy": 45.088, "architecture_maturity": 75.685, "architecture_confidence": 85.25, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.47, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 5.76, "deceleration": 54.14, "rotation_down": 59.97, "downward_expansion": 81.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.483333, 13.758182, 14.184524, 14.75828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.8, "trend_reference": 15.688333, "distance_from_trend": -0.120365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.460577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.515119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.453478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22905, "excess_performance": -0.670422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.515119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.464535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053107, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.741802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444252, "relative_activity": 4.397316, "balance": 3.741802, "dry_up": 1.45141, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087514, "annualized_volatility": 0.19926, "from_high_reference": -0.469231, "from_low_reference": 0.082353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.688333, "fair_value_reference": 28.460577, "structural_low": 12.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.001908, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033841, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.161871, "worst_return": -0.189691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016088, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.12582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165468, "worst_return": -0.238616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.202131, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.253369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.726667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.255061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.216758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068293, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.256065, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.95, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 75950.0, "trend": 14.571667, "fair_value": 14.675879, "relative_strength": -12.508111, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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"relative_strength": -46.718207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.094154, "energy": 48.091982, "activity_lines": [ 13.996667, 14.249091, 14.65119, 15.282903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.05, "volume": 81020, "typical_volume": 85157.8, "trend": 16.053333, "fair_value": 28.472756, "relative_strength": -48.23703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.084333, "energy": 64.767896, "activity_lines": [ 13.623333, 14.000909, 14.449762, 15.075591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 33260, "typical_volume": 82219.8, "trend": 15.865, "fair_value": 28.461859, "relative_strength": -47.957803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.261684, "energy": 66.142839, "activity_lines": [ 13.406667, 13.813636, 14.280238, 14.891505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.8, "volume": 444252, "typical_volume": 101028.0, "trend": 15.688333, "fair_value": 28.460577, "relative_strength": -46.453478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.922911, "energy": 45.088241, "activity_lines": [ 13.483333, 13.758182, 14.184524, 14.75828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }