{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df75a3ab-c5b7-4c88-ba40-faf4fa19ea9e", "symbol": "UKUSD", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom UCITS ETF hUSD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.902, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.68, "architecture_energy": 90.957, "architecture_maturity": 36.434, "architecture_confidence": 71.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 83.17, "upward_expansion": 96.99, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.55, "downward_expansion": 21.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.028333, 30.647727, 30.252191, 30.013989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.360001, "trend_reference": 29.713, "distance_from_trend": 0.05543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.152294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.572622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075261, "excess_performance": -0.007622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033052, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051049, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.226587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132982, "relative_activity": 3.425248, "balance": 2.226587, "dry_up": 3.140618, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015466, "annualized_volatility": 0.144787, "from_high_reference": -0.007124, "from_low_reference": 0.238791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.713, "fair_value_reference": 24.152294, "structural_low": 27.475, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.010051, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": 0.005902, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.083453, "worst_return": -0.04964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.041853, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.010881, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.119013, "worst_return": -0.051532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.078091, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.017414, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.135055, "worst_return": -0.067979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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30.078, 29.928364, 29.770738, 29.625161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.334999, "volume": 89981, "typical_volume": 30360.0, "trend": 29.403333, "fair_value": 23.929806, "relative_strength": -2.3856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.323659, "energy": 65.179442, "activity_lines": [ 30.188666, 30.028364, 29.8365, 29.690624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.700001, "volume": 25899, "typical_volume": 27723.25, "trend": 29.499333, "fair_value": 23.999845, "relative_strength": -1.127647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.677366, "energy": 74.550404, "activity_lines": [ 30.391333, 30.175364, 29.93831, 29.77428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.469999, "volume": 238864, "typical_volume": 34229.8, "trend": 29.615167, "fair_value": 24.076678, "relative_strength": 1.172614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.026805, "energy": 87.26303, "activity_lines": [ 30.776, 30.435363, 30.105952, 29.901419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.360001, "volume": 132982, "typical_volume": 38824.05, "trend": 29.713, "fair_value": 24.152294, "relative_strength": -0.572622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.679869, "energy": 90.95669, "activity_lines": [ 31.028333, 30.647727, 30.252191, 30.013989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }