{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df79cd94-ef59-4d7d-a2c7-f45a928e9135", "symbol": "PACUA", "name": "UBS MSCI Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.022, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.117, "architecture_energy": 96.61, "architecture_maturity": 9.197, "architecture_confidence": 67.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.97, "rotation_up": 86.92, "upward_expansion": 97.66, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 10.69, "downward_expansion": 24.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.707667, 26.231637, 25.996405, 25.840398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.280001, "trend_reference": 25.616, "distance_from_trend": 0.064959, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.130023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.323337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081681, "excess_performance": -0.001202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064959, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002948, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.701438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20597, "relative_activity": 7.490363, "balance": 3.701438, "dry_up": 2.314532, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013746, "annualized_volatility": 0.144207, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.204415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.616, "fair_value_reference": 21.130023, "structural_low": 24.105, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012818, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.011444, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.083172, "worst_return": -0.062584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020222, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.000577, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.092965, "worst_return": -0.056298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046854, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.014389, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.106127, "worst_return": -0.040337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"energy": 13.956232, "activity_lines": [ 25.365, 25.519091, 25.5805, 25.46872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.780001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2687.5, "trend": 25.216833, "fair_value": 20.9086, "relative_strength": -4.045367, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.788034, "energy": 13.541001, "activity_lines": [ 25.502, 25.542727, 25.600738, 25.510538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.205, "volume": 2550, "typical_volume": 2813.75, "trend": 25.315833, "fair_value": 20.959645, "relative_strength": -3.114468, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.566193, "energy": 29.197243, "activity_lines": [ 25.742333, 25.642909, 25.662524, 25.57429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.235001, "volume": 1864, "typical_volume": 2906.95, "trend": 25.401833, "fair_value": 21.010215, "relative_strength": -2.802922, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.283749, "energy": 65.436103, "activity_lines": [ 25.944, 25.751182, 25.728, 25.633591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.83, "volume": 447, "typical_volume": 1804.85, "trend": 25.502667, "fair_value": 21.067933, "relative_strength": -0.6737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.412792, "energy": 85.469328, "activity_lines": [ 26.301334, 25.960727, 25.845429, 25.725731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.280001, "volume": 20597, "typical_volume": 2749.8, "trend": 25.616, "fair_value": 21.130023, "relative_strength": -0.323337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.116795, "energy": 96.610207, "activity_lines": [ 26.707667, 26.231637, 25.996405, 25.840398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }