{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df7babc8-7542-4af5-974a-b0430074af29", "symbol": "HTG", "name": "HomeToGo SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.358, "architecture_energy": 63.896, "architecture_maturity": 66.214, "architecture_confidence": 83.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 50.88, "rotation_down": 67.83, "downward_expansion": 84.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.984667, 1.019273, 1.095405, 1.155871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 1.2554, "distance_from_trend": -0.203441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.833058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.454463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.561926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310345, "excess_performance": -0.374985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.454463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 555725, "relative_activity": 2.951842, "balance": 0.945523, "dry_up": 1.634171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081308, "annualized_volatility": 0.321142, "from_high_reference": -0.483204, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2554, "fair_value_reference": 1.833058, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.012397, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.032563, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.241935, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.099101, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.145744, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.291367, "worst_return": -0.205714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063036, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.190375, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036842, "worst_return": -0.188406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 171824.45, "trend": 1.291567, "fair_value": 1.85825, "relative_strength": -34.853701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.674357, "energy": 89.382913, "activity_lines": [ 0.9916, 1.051345, 1.12921, 1.193009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 291808, "typical_volume": 177639.45, "trend": 1.274067, "fair_value": 1.845494, "relative_strength": -34.025052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.479057, "energy": 83.50148, "activity_lines": [ 0.982133, 1.0324, 1.110914, 1.173553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 555725, "typical_volume": 188263.8, "trend": 1.2554, "fair_value": 1.833058, "relative_strength": -34.561926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.358454, "energy": 63.896317, "activity_lines": [ 0.984667, 1.019273, 1.095405, 1.155871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }